Methanol: a compendium of major events in the methanol market in 2022

Methanol: a compendium of major events in the methanol market in 2022

A. The cost side hedges weak demand, methanol is "N" type trend in the year

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out at the beginning of the year, and crude oil prices surged from $90 to $130. At the same time, domestic spring cold and electricity demand suppressed by the double control in the first quarter, combined with the epidemic and winter weather affect the production and transportation, resulting in the power coal port prices rose sharply again to the level of 1600, the pit also once again appeared in a long queue, the cost side of the good push, methanol prices in Jiangsu region in early March exceeded 3000 yuan / ton. But the downstream follow up weak, cost transfer difficulties, especially in mid-June the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates 75 basis points, the collective adjustment of commodities, methanol down, until mid-July Jiangsu methanol prices fell to the low point of the year. Methanol producers' profits shrank sharply, and import profits were low. With both domestic and imported supply reduced in July-August, as well as the arrival of the peak demand season in the golden ninth and silver tenth months, methanol prices in Jiangsu were almost flat at the end of September with the high point in mid-early March. In the fourth quarter, the domestic epidemic outbreak in full swing, the terminal start is not high, the cost transfer is not good, affected by the transport of the production area inventory tired to the same year high level led to the subsequent drainage pressure is obvious, domestic methanol prices fell back again.

Second, the new energy capacity continues to release China's methanol supply scale exceeded 100 million tons

In 2022, China added 5.545 million tons of methanol production capacity, mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanxi, Anhui and other places, and some devices were shut down by multiple factors. By the end of 2022, China had a total of 113.06 million tons of methanol production capacity, with an effective capacity of around 10 million tons, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year. And in the enterprise capacity ranking of more than 1 million tons / year scale reached 23, with a total capacity of more than 44 million tons, accounting for more than 40% of the total capacity, it is worth noting that in 2022, Inner Mongolia Jiutai relying on the commissioning of 2 million tons / year methanol plant into the top of the capacity ranking. 2022 million tons above the proportion of enterprises continue to improve, China's methanol industry concentration to further enhance.

Third, the international start-up decline import increment is less than expected

2021 put into operation in Iran 1.65 million tons / year Sabalan, the United States 1.7 million tons / year Koch normal production only at the end of the year, and 2022 only a set of 200,000 tons / year US methanol put into operation in North America, the total foreign production capacity continues to increase, so the annual methanol imports increased compared to last year. Because of the year by the sharp fluctuations in the price of the energy side, the high cost of natural gas methanol, but the impact of the softening economy demand sluggishness, foreign installations stop frequently, the overall international capacity utilization rate is relatively low. 2022 annual methanol imports of about 12 million tons, an increase of 7% over the previous year.

Fourth, the increase in domestic and foreign demand slowed down

China is the world's largest producer and consumer of methanol, China's methanol imports more, while exports are limited. 2022 global economic downturn in the background, foreign demand is also sluggish. 1-November, China's methanol exports accumulated 178,600 tons, shrinking 52.12% year-on-year.

On the domestic demand side, among the emerging downstream, Tianjin Bohua Yongli 600,000 tons/year MTO project was put into operation in the middle of the year, further increasing the domestic coal-to-olefin capacity. But at the same time, demand weakened due to economic recession, while the upstream methanol price was relatively at high level driven by the cost side, so the profit of olefin was further compressed. After entering the fourth quarter, many sets of coal-to-olefin projects were parked, so the consumption of methanol by olefin was limited to increase throughout the year. And other traditional downstream is also mostly saturated, according to statistics, the growth rate of methanol downstream demand is less than 3% during the year.

V. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Accelerate the promotion of methanol vehicles and promote the development of methanol economy

The supply of traditional fuel energy is tight, and the environmental pollution and ecological degradation produced by it are becoming more and more serious, in the process of practicing low-carbon emission reduction strategy, car companies have also made multi-directional efforts to try, in many new clean energy, with low-carbon, liquid, efficient and other characteristics of methanol has become a world-recognized excellent green clean energy, its burning efficiency, safety and convenient properties are particularly suitable for the automotive industry. Countries all over the world started to layout the methanol field as early as possible. On the "methanol new track", Geely Automobile 4th generation Dihao alcohol-electric hybrid car, is the world's first alcohol-electric hybrid car, later need to pay attention to the promotion efforts.