DOP: Analysis of Profits from January to October

DOP: Analysis of Profits from January to October

In 2022, the price of octanol, the raw material, will continue to run at a high level, and the price of phthalic anhydride will also run strongly within the stage. The market price of phthalic anhydride will reach a historical high during the year. In the game of competition with demand, cost pressure is difficult to eliminate, and there is pressure on profitability. The DOP industry has been in a situation of meager profit or loss for a long time, with narrow profit margins. It has been fluctuating near the cost line, and the pressure of actual production losses still exists. There are both losses and profits in the DOP industry during the year, but most of them are in a state of loss in the cycle, and the profit margin fluctuates in the range of -250-300 yuan/ton. The profit acquisition stage is mainly concentrated in June and July. Alcohol downtrend is the main trend, which is a significant benefit for the DOP industry, and the price of superimposed phthalic anhydride is relatively low and fluctuates, creating certain conditions for profit acquisition. In other months, the domestic DOP market was in a loss situation. The main factor was that the price difference between octanol and DOP was enlarged, and the loss became more and more obvious when DOP shipments continued to fall. The ability of downstream users to consume goods was difficult to substantially improve. The market acceptance is weak, and DOP merchants are willing to sell goods at a profit, and the DOP industry is under great pressure to make profits.

The price trend of DOP basically follows the price change of octanol. Among the raw materials of DOP, octanol accounts for nearly 70%, and its price change directly affects the trend of DOP, while phthalic anhydride accounts for less than 40%. However, this year is different from previous years when octanol fluctuated frequently and the overall fluctuation space of phthalic anhydride was relatively limited. Phthalic anhydride also fluctuated in a wide range this year, especially in mid-October, with an increase of 50.7%. Therefore, the DOP industry is not only affected by the strong conduction of octanol, but the When the market is running strongly, the transmission of costs is also very obvious. DOP's own profitability determines the phenomenon of passively rising the price of octanol, the raw material. The price of DOP maintains a high degree of consistency with octanol. Especially in the rising stage, the rise of DOP price is often less than that of octanol, and the decline often exceeds that of octanol. Therefore, the profit of the DOP industry is often hindered.

Compared with the blockage of profits in the DOP industry, the profit margins of octanol are extremely generous, and the abnormal profitability of upstream and downstream industries is also a distinctive feature of the plasticizer industry chain during the year.

The demand prospect of the DOP industry is still constrained, and both external and domestic demand are under great pressure. The macroeconomic performance is sluggish, and the overall development of bulk merchants is limited. Environmental protection has become a major factor restricting the development of the industry. Both the terminal industry and the plasticizer manufacturers themselves are constrained by environmental protection all the year round. It is expected that the DOP trend in the later period will still be passive for a long period of time. The impact of the upstream is obvious, and the cost pressure is hard to dispel. It is expected that the DOP industry will still be in a situation of meager profit or loss for a long period of time, with limited profit space, and deformed profitability of upstream and downstream industries will still be a distinctive feature of the plasticizer industry chain.