Development analysis of PBAT downstream of BDO

PBAT is a copolymer of aliphatic and aromatic polyesters, which combines the excellent degradation performance of aliphatic polyesters and the good mechanical properties of aromatic polyesters. It has good ductility and elongation at break, as well as good heat resistance and impact properties. Its mechanical properties are between PE and PP, and can meet the requirements of general plastics. It can be used for various molding processes on general polyester processing equipment. Compared with other degradable plastics, PBAT is suitable for the downstream needs of the terminal in all aspects, including packaging, fiber, agriculture, medical and other fields.

In 2021, the production technology of PBAT in China will gradually mature, with an in-process production capacity of 378000 tons. In terms of the planned production capacity in 2021, it is planned to expand the domestic production capacity by nearly 7million tons in the next three years. It is expected that PBAT will become the first degradable plastic in large quantities. From the perspective of upstream raw materials, PBAT's main raw materials include BDO, PTA and adipic acid, all of which are chemical raw materials with rich domestic capacity; In terms of engineering basis, PBAT device has many similarities with PBT, PBS and pet devices, and engineering transformation has interoperability; From the perspective of production process, PBAT production is essentially polycondensation of BDO, PTA and adipic acid in a certain proportion, with low technical barriers and easy to achieve large-scale production. As an environmentally friendly material with good performance, PBAT will take the lead in large-scale production.

Estimated incremental data of PBAT from 2022 to 2025

Bat's main target downstream markets include agricultural plastic films and plastic packaging materials. China is a big consumer of plastics, and the use of agricultural films will reach 2.4 million tons in 2019. The disposable plastic products market is also growing rapidly, especially the plastic products used for takeout and express packaging. According to the statistics of the plastic recycling Committee of China Plastics Association, by 2019, the annual use of plastic bags in China was about 4million tons, while the use of express plastic packaging reached 1.8 million tons, and the use of takeout plastic packaging reached 500000 tons. From the perspective of express business income and takeout orders in recent years, the demand for plastic packaging in this part will continue to maintain a long-term high-speed growth. It is assumed that express packaging and take away packaging will maintain a compound growth rate of 8% from 2020 to 2025, and their demand will increase to about 2.8 million tons and 800000 tons respectively by 2025.

With the implementation of the nationwide "plastic ban order", degradable plastics will be widely used in the fields of agricultural films, plastic bags and plastic packaging, and gradually replace traditional plastics. The total demand in the above fields will be about 10million tons by 2025. It is estimated that the penetration rate of PBAT will reach 50% by 2025, and the corresponding market space will be 5million tons.

The increase of PBAT production will be the largest demand increment of BDO in the future. According to the calculation of the domestic mainstream PBAT process route and the calculation of the average unit consumption of BDO by PBAT of 0.5T, we predict that by 2025, the output of 5million tons of PBAT will bring about 2.5 million tons of incremental demand to BDO, and will be the most important downstream of BDO in the future.