Methanol: multi air interweaving methanol adjustment space or limited

Under the influence of dual control of energy consumption, several methanol units in Inner Mongolia have been reduced or shut down, while southwest Sichuan SVW and Lutianhua gas head units have also been reduced in operation due to the impact of limited gas. In addition, some spring inspection units in the early stage have not been restarted, and the overall supply has been reduced. However, the domestic methanol market was once higher at the beginning of this week when Shanghai promoted the resumption of business and market by stages and the demand side was expected to increase.

However, in the first ten days of May, the centralized parking or load reduction devices in Inner Mongolia, such as Rongxin, Yigao and black cat, will be maintained for 7-10 days, and will gradually return to normal in the second half of May; In addition, Gansu Huating and Xinjiang Xinye, which were shut down in the early stage, have also been restarted in succession. Although the inventory of methanol enterprises in the main production areas is not large at present, and some of them even stop selling, the overall commencement expectation is higher, and the overall supply in the mainland is increasing.

On the demand side, in the traditional downstream, acetic acid only started in May, and domestic acetic acid plants were subject to centralized maintenance. In June, many large plants in East China still had maintenance plans, and the overall operating rate remained at a low level for a long time; As formaldehyde enters the off-season of high-temperature plate demand, it is also expected that the late start-up is low; DMF, MTBE and dimethyl ether started relatively smoothly. In the emerging downstream, the 300000 t / a unit of Shandong Yangmei Hengtong has been shut down for maintenance for one month since May 2; On May 16, Nanjing Chengzhi 1 × 300000 t / a MTO plant was shut down for maintenance for 20 days,

In terms of ports, due to the increase in arrivals since the middle and late May, but the follow-up of local demand is limited, resulting in a significant increase in inventory. In particular, due to the maintenance of Nanjing Chengzhi MTO device, the contradiction between supply and demand worsened. In the middle of this week, the spot price of the port was adjusted downward with the depth of futures.

In the later stage, with the increase of port inventory and the expected heavy supply of multiple methanol plants in the mainland, while the downstream demand is generally supported, some users digest the raw material inventory, and traders are also cautious about entering the market, the methanol price in some regions may fall. However, due to the low inventory of enterprises in the main production areas and the obvious cost support brought by coal, the overall adjustment range of prices is expected to be limited.