Methanol industry chain: crude oil drives the rise and fall

Methanol industry chain: crude oil drives the rise and fall

1、 Review on the operation of methanol and downstream industrial chain last month

In March 2022, the price index of methanol and downstream industry chain rose more or fell less. As of March 31, the methanol industry chain price index closed at 4553 points, up 5.37% from the same period last month. In March, methanol and downstream products within the monitoring range rose more or fell less. Among them, the product with the largest increase was acetic acid, with an increase of 45.07%, and the product with the largest decrease was DMF, with a decrease of 10.71%. In addition, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the intensive sanctions against Russia have once again aroused concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply. In addition, Europe and the United States fear the embargo on Russian oil and the prospect of Iran's nuclear talks is cloudy. Crude oil continues to soar and set a 14-year high. Under the cost transmission, most products in the chemical market fluctuate with the original oil price. However, recently, there have been frequent local epidemic outbreaks in China, and the situation of epidemic prevention and control is severe and complex, resulting in varying degrees of damage to the flow of goods and downstream demand. Some domestic epidemic diseases are close to the consumer end, the price transmission speed of products is slow, which has restrained the demand side. The chemical products market is weak in the later stage, and the market atmosphere is slightly light. It is expected that in the next cycle, most products will return to the fundamentals of the industrial chain if the crude oil price has no outstanding performance. The performance of downstream products is expected to remain close to the performance of the upstream market, if more energy products are expected to remain close to the performance of the downstream market.

2、 Market trend of some classified products

Methanol: in March, China's methanol market accelerated upward, up 27.62% year-on-year and 10.57% month on month. In March, the market performance was significantly affected by the energy side. The price fluctuation of crude oil and natural gas caused by geographical conflict became the mainstream direction of market operation. The price of crude oil stood at the 100 yuan mark for the third time. The collective strength of chemical products was driven by crude oil. The medium and long-term trading price of coal was mainly guided by the long-term association, the price restrictions of chemical coal were relaxed, and the rapid rise of methanol price in the mainland triggered the pursuit of rising sentiment of the industry. After the Winter Olympic Games, The traditional downstream has officially entered the stock preparation, and the market trading is in good condition. Since the middle of last month, the methanol market has entered a wide range of shocks. With the cooling down of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the high crude oil price has dropped, the impact of energy side fluctuations on the market has gradually flattened, and the price operation began to pay attention to the fundamentals. The spring inspection of some units began in mid March, and the periodic shutdown of units in Shanxi affected by environmental protection tightened the supply. An important meeting was held in the month, the environmental protection control in the North was tightened, the epidemic control gradually warmed up this month, the logistics and transportation were difficult, the oil price was still at a high position, and the freight cost remained high. After the replenishment operation of downstream enterprises, the inventory level has increased, and the performance of receiving goods has declined step by step. This month, the olefin end of the integrated unit was shut down, the export of methanol was reduced, and the downstream of the local refinery was mostly reduced by logistics and epidemic control, The overall start-up performance of methanol downstream was general, and the negotiation atmosphere in the mainland market weakened in the later part of the month. In terms of ports, from the perspective of spot fundamentals, the port inventory is rising slightly this month, but the absolute value is at a low level in recent years. In the first half of the month, it mainly follows the operation of crude oil and methanol futures. The inventory is low and the mentality of those who have goods is stable. In late March, the epidemic prevention and control in many places in East China was stepped up, and it was more difficult to pick up the goods in the main reservoir areas. Although the import arrival volume picked up and the port inventory accumulated continuously, the tradable goods source in some reservoir areas was still tight, and the overall price performance remained strong.

Formaldehyde: the trend of domestic formaldehyde market was different last month, falling first and then rising. At the beginning of the month, the shipment of formaldehyde factory was poor. Due to the sufficient stock of downstream plate factories in the early stage, the purchase enthusiasm was weak. However, with the wide rise of raw methanol, the formaldehyde factory pushed up the operation; In the middle of the month, domestic health incidents were repeated, logistics and transportation were limited in most areas, formaldehyde factories were facing pressure on shipment, some devices in the yard were reduced and stopped, the formaldehyde market declined as a whole, and the downstream board factories had significantly reduced their demand for formaldehyde, so they were cautious in purchasing; At the end of the month, local logistics and transportation continued to be under control. In terms of raw material methanol, the focus of negotiation began to fall, market sentiment changed, and crude oil fell. The focus of negotiation began to fall, the transaction atmosphere significantly weakened, and the price market narrowed down. A new round of domestic environmental protection control was launched, some downstream plate factories decreased, the support for formaldehyde demand was general, the subsequent receiving of goods was a little difficult, and the formaldehyde factories continued to market with difficulty.

Dimethyl ether: in March, the market price of dimethyl ether rose first and then operated stably, moderately and weakly. In the first ten days of the month, driven by the continuous rise of international crude oil, the market price of chemical products collectively strengthened, and the increase of raw material cost supported the mentality of upstream manufacturers. The gas market also rose driven by the surge of crude oil, the price difference of gas ether gradually widened, the terminal was in good mood to take goods, the market purchase was positive, the seller's shipment was smooth, the crude oil fell broadly in the middle of the month, the cost pressure eased, methanol Gas market prices have fallen one after another, and dimethyl ether operators hold a bearish attitude towards the future market, falling sharply. At the end of the month, the epidemic prevention and control in Shandong was upgraded, Hebei Jichun was stopped for maintenance, and the volume outside the market in Henan, the main production area, was tight. The upstream manufacturers adjusted the price according to their own shipment and gave priority to shipment.

Acetic acid: the overall domestic acetic acid market rose significantly in March. Due to the high reduction in February, the price of acetic acid is gradually close to the cost line. In early March, due to geopolitical influence, crude oil soared, the price of raw methanol rose sharply, the cost support was prominent, and the acetic acid plant showed a strong willingness to stop the decline. The raw material inventory of downstream users is mostly low. After the market shows signs of stabilization, traders and downstream users are more active in purchasing and replenishing inventory. The improvement of shipment boosted the supplier's mentality, and the acetic acid factory increased continuously. However, raw materials rose too fast, and the inventory of some acetic acid manufacturers mainly in stock was still high, especially the counterattack of the epidemic in many places, which had obvious restrictions on demand and transportation. The domestic acetic acid price once fell near the middle of the month. However, Thorpe's 1.2 million T / a unit unexpectedly shut down on the 16th, and the contracted users of raw materials supplied from the factory, as well as Shanghai Huayi and Nanjing BP units shut down on the 23rd. Driven by the favorable supply reduction, the price of acetic acid stopped falling and rising again. Until the end of the month, the poor sales of downstream products and the serious local epidemic led to a decline in demand and weak market rise.