Methanol: crude oil station after 100 methanol market deduction

Local time on February 24, Russian troops to the black sea and azov began to log in, the Ukrainian military infrastructure by Russian high-precision weapons attack, Ukraine announced the state of war, war between Russia and Ukraine in earnest and the global financial market turmoil, crude oil futures prices jumped more than 6% intraday highest brent contract at sight at $103.09 a barrel, The 6.45 per cent gain was the highest since September 2014, and it was only the third time crude had crossed the $100 mark in history.

Methanol market by crude oil volatility intraday high, then quickly fell, the price performance is weaker than crude oil. In the first four days of this week, the methanol market maintained an upward trend of shock, but at present, it has been insufficient to follow the upward momentum of crude oil. The main reason is that the fundamentals of methanol do not have outstanding performance, the cost side is insufficient to support, supply and demand are incremental, lack of short-term market guidance.

Methanol and the linkage of the crude oil is mainly originated from the development of the methanol to olefins device, from 2010 the first set of the methanol to olefins device for shenhua baotou coal project officially entered the commercial operation, more than a decade, 14 million tons of production capacity of MTO/P device production, consumption of methanol is steady at around 50%, say, the construction of MTO device, It directly affects the trend of methanol price.

Can be seen from the MTO comprehensive profit estimates, last winter MTO and downstream profit performance has been losing money, since last year, east China MTO device to have access to ease tensions between supply and demand, but always failed to reverse the price match, two weeks after profits and weakening trend, the recent northern part of the MTO/P device or is likely to drop negative profits in response to stress. Although crude oil surge in recent days led to the chemical collective up, PP, EG profit gap has narrowed, but still pose a lot of pressure. Methanol may fluctuate in the short term due to policy and news speculation, but in the long term olefin profit performance is doomed to suppress the price movement.