Impact of crude oil falling and toluene price on TDI

The East China toluene Market negotiation was quiet this week, and the price was withdrawn. On the one hand, U.S. crude oil production rose to a new high since April of 20 years, and crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The sharp rise in the risk of economic recession weakened the outlook for fuel demand. This week, international crude oil futures were weak and volatile, and the center of gravity of toluene in the U.S. gold market moved down, the U.S. market fell significantly, and the peripheral support was weak; On the other hand, domestic traders are reluctant to sell goods, there is a slight circulation of spot goods on the market, and the inquiry is quiet, while the supply of goods in West China is forced to be raised, which affects the low price shipment, and the market order is chaotic. At the beginning of the week, due to the implementation of new epidemic prevention and control measures in China and the higher than expected inflation growth in the United States, the decline of European and American crude oil futures continued last Friday during the Asian trading session, with weak external support, and the stop rise and fall of European, American and American gold prices dampened market confidence. The toluene Market in East China was under pressure, and the "sell down" mentality affected the lower and lower reaches to hold a wait-and-see mentality. In addition, the shippers still had confidence, covered more goods and sold less, reported less inquiries and quiet transactions. Subsequently, affected by the low market price, some downstream companies just needed to purchase supplementary supplies, pushing up the toluene Market. However, in the middle of the week, the prices of crude oil and most commodity futures fell, market confidence was lacking, and the toluene Market stopped rising and fell again. The market price of toluene in South China has moved down, the quotations of major manufacturers have been reduced, and the on-site shipments are poor. Only exports and some domestic companies just need to maintain transactions.

Domestic construction started stably this week, and the port inventory decreased compared with last week. With the ships leaving the port one after another, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, which is dominated by positive supply side. In terms of demand, the price of pure benzene fell, PX construction increased to around 85.65%, but the market center of gravity moved down, and toluene disproportionation support was general; This week, the refined oil was consolidated among regions, and the high price of toluene was lowered, and the oil demand was generally supported; TDI market range consolidation, wait-and-see attitude towards raw materials, the overall demand side is not good. Under the long short game, it is expected that the toluene market will fluctuate slightly at a high level next week, so we need to be vigilant against the risk of decline.

In the first half of the week, the market maintained stable operation, and the Shanghai factory did not have the latest guidance price this week. The trading market offer maintained stable shipment, and the low-cost offer was heard. Some profit makers were in trouble, the downstream buying gas was poor, and the consumption of early-stage inventory was dominated. In the second half of the week, the cost support was relatively strong, and the supplier factory actively supported the market. The factory in Shanghai was expected to be overhauled in July, and the inventory in spot circulation was expected to shrink. The trading market offer rose, and the low-cost offer was difficult to find, The spot in South China is tight, and some traders are reluctant to sell and do not offer for the time being. The U.S. gold market also rose to $2500 / ton FBO. The atmosphere of middlemen in the floor is active, and the downstream just needs to follow up on demand.

Next week, the price of raw toluene may fall, but the factories in Shanghai are expected to be overhauled from the end of June to July. Market confidence is boosted. The downstream is in the traditional off-season, and it is just needed to follow up. It is expected that the domestic market will maintain a high level in the short term.