Acetic acid: centralized parking of domestic and foreign devices is easy to rise but difficult to fall

Since May, the price of domestic acetic acid has risen sharply. Compared with the end of April, the price of acetic acid in Jiangsu has increased by as much as 900 yuan / ton. However, on May 7, the price of Henan Longyu and Shaanxi extended bidding rose too high in a single day, while the downstream was affected by the epidemic and other factors, there was strong resistance to high priced raw materials, the market fell into a stalemate, and even some prices were corrected due to the strong willingness of some traders to make profits and ship goods.

The general trend of domestic acetic acid operating rate and price is opposite: when the operating rate of acetic acid rises, the price of acetic acid is generally in the downward channel; when the operating rate decreases, the price is generally in the upward channel. The recent and later centralized maintenance of multiple sets of domestic devices and the expected reduction in supply are also the main driving force for the rise of the market.

In mid May, with the completion of the maintenance of two sets of acetic acid plants in Guangxi Huayi and Nanjing Ineos, the operating rate will rise. At present, although it remains to be seen whether the Shanghai Huayi plant will be shut down at the end of the month, the total production capacity of 2.2 million tons of Shandong Yankuang and Nanjing Celanese has been determined to be shut down in late May. It is conservatively expected that the operating rate in June will be 80%, which is at the conventional low level.

In addition, due to the interruption of raw material supply, two large acetic acid plants in Celanese and Ineos in the United States stopped due to force majeure, and the supply gap in the United States increased significantly.

In the second half of April, the price of domestic acetic acid fell sharply, and by the end of the month, it had fallen to the low price of the year. In addition, the downstream users prepared goods before the May Day festival, and the inventory of some upstream acetic acid factories had been transferred to the downstream manufacturers. By this week, the overall inventory of acetic acid in the society had dropped to about 195000 tons, down about 45000 tons compared with the peak period in late April.

It is understood that although there are goods in the downstream recently, the overall inventory level is higher than that before May Day. However, due to the Limited Logistics and transportation, the shortage of transportation vehicles, the rapid increase of acetic acid, the delay of procurement in the downstream and other factors, there is still room to improve the reserves of raw materials in the downstream.

The impact of the epidemic on Construction in some downstream areas should not be underestimated. However, the centralized maintenance of domestic acetic acid plants, the maintenance at a low level for a long time, the force majeure shutdown of American acetic acid plants and the possibility of export driving domestic trade are the main factors affecting the domestic market in the short term. It is expected that there is still room for the price of acetic acid to rise. In the later stage, we need to focus on the downstream acceptance of raw materials.