Acetic acid: acetic acid under the epidemic situation is attacked from both sides

Since April, the trend of domestic acetic acid market has been general. The main reason is that the situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control is severe, which has a certain impact on terminal demand and upstream and downstream construction, superimposed with limited logistics and insufficient transportation capacity, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is not high. In the later period, the reduction of downstream demand leads to the continuous accumulation of acetic acid inventory, and the market will adjust downward.

1、 Rising social inventories put downward pressure on the market

In addition to Huayi Shanghai's 500000 T / A and Nanjing bp500000 T / a acetic acid plants still being shut down, it is rumored that Henan's 500000 T / a plants were also shut down on April 9. In addition, the load of Shandong Yankuang acetic acid plant was reduced to 90%, and the overall operating rate of the industry was about 82%.

Although the operating rate of the industry is down, the inventory of some acetic acid plants is increasing due to the limited export of Henan Longyu under the control of the epidemic, the extremely limited recent shipment volume of Shandong Yankuang, the shrinking demand and insufficient transportation capacity. According to statistics, as of April, China's domestic social inventory was about 230000 tons, which has been at an absolute high level. Under this background, the acetic acid factory launched a price war again.

2、 Under the dual pressure, the main downstream construction decreased significantly

Affected by the epidemic, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other major chemical industry provinces have been sealed off, and even affected more than 10 regions of the Yangtze River economic belt. In terms of transportation, under the influence of the epidemic, the high-speed control and closure of domestic provinces and cities has led to the lengthening of the transportation cycle, and under the influence of insufficient transportation capacity, the "one in and one out" of raw material procurement and product sales of chemical enterprises have been affected to a certain extent.

It is understood that acetate, PTA and chloroacetic acid in the downstream of acetic acid are facing the dual pressure of high cost and poor sales of finished products. In addition, some downstream users also have difficulties in transporting raw materials. It is understood that the current PTA start-up is only around 70%, and will remain at this level for a long time in the later stage; The start-up of ethyl acetate and butyl acetate was only maintained at 45% and 32%, which was far lower than the conventional level. In addition, small downstream parking or production reduction are concentrated. Under the influence of the epidemic, the reduction of rigid demand is obvious, which is another important factor in the negative market trend.

3、 The foreign supply gap is reduced, and the export market is general

Affected by the parking of Celanese, Eastman and BP in the United Kingdom, the gap between Europe and the United States has increased. In the first quarter of 2022, the domestic export of acetic acid was about 200000 tons, an increase of about 70000 tons compared with last year. However, at present, the parking acetic acid plants in Europe and America have been restarted, and the acetic acid inventory in Indian ports is at a high level, and the purchasing interest of foreign buyers is low. Therefore, the recent export market is very flat.