Toluene xylene: Transmission analysis of Russia-Ukraine situation to toluene xylene market

On February 24, 2022, the situation between Russia and Ukraine was rapidly tense. At noon, The Russian army landed in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and the Russia-Ukraine war officially started. European and American crude oil futures continued to rise, and cloth oil continued to rise after breaking through the 100-yuan mark, while THE US oil moved closer and closer. As of 17:00 PM, WTI was at 97.83 USD/BBL, up 5.73, or 6.22%, from the 23rd close. Brent traded at 103.21, up 6.37, or nearly 6.58%, from the 23rd close, and cloth oil peaked at $105.79 / BBL, despite the retrenching of the centre of gravity in Europe and the US, still a sharp shock to the chemical market.

Buoyed by the continuous rise of crude oil and the shock of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the domestic toluene and xylene markets are volatile. Due to different views on the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the subsequent trend of crude oil, the market fluctuates frequently within the range, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged. At present, the crude oil market under the situation of Russia and Ukraine is a boost factor for toluene and xylene.

However, the follow-up of Russia-Ukraine relationship is uncertain, which has a crucial impact on the crude oil market, and the toluene and xylene markets, which are highly correlated with the trend of crude oil, will also be affected. Apart from the influence of this factor, the demand for toluene and xylene in the downstream chemical market is general at present, and the premise of maintaining the high price of biphenyl is the good development of the downstream. Once the downstream demand fails to follow up, the surge of toluene and xylene is limited, and the subsequent market still has the risk of falling back.