Prospect of PX market structure in Asia in 2020

2019 is a year of rapid expansion of China's PX production capacity, and its impact on the global PX industry has become obvious. China's dependence on PX imports has decreased, and the global PX benefits have been significantly compressed. China's PTA enterprises reduce their raw material stocking cycle.

By 2020, China's new production capacity is expected to be 1.8 million tons and is likely to be concentrated In the fourth quarter of next year, PTA production capacity in 2020 is significantly higher than that of PX. At present, the theoretical production capacity may be as high as 16 million tons. However, Except for the first half of the year, Huangzhong production capacity is 6.2 million tons, while other more than 10 million tons are mainly in the fourth quarter of next year. Given the low demand growth rate and low efficiency next year, the actual increase is likely to be around 8.4 million tons. Therefore, in terms of the comparison of new production capacity,PX lags behind PTA again. But released from production, this year the domestic new capacity, especially in zhejiang production of petrochemical and constant from brunei will progress smoothly to release next year, next year Ⅳ X yields remain high growth. And will further squeeze other import market share. If from the point of view of polyester downstream, the middle and downstream of this year is still in the accumulation of inventory stage, supporting the polyester 9% slightly above the maximum growth rate. For next year, polyester output growth is expected to be around 6 per cent, given global economic growth and the equalisation of domestic downstream stocks. In 2019, polyester production will increase by 4.25 million tons, and the demand for pX will be about 2.4 million tons. In 2020, the increase of polyester production is expected to be around 3 million tons, corresponding to the demand for PX around 1.7 million tons. If The start of Zhejiang petrochemical smooth, even if only the zhi Zhejiang petrochemical its own output growth is expected to have been met. In addition, given the increased production of Hengyi Brunei and even Hengli Petrochemical, the competition in PX will continue to intensify in 2020. In this context, poor processing at X is expected to remain at a low level. Therefore, the increase in the volatility of PX plant operation in 2020 will continue to be a highly probable event, and some PX plants will even be shut down or withdrawn from the market. Of course, due to the PTA will also enter the excesses of next year, is expected to benefit of each section of polyester industry chain will have different degree of compression, the industry of construction also will be raised and volatility, line will increase the frequency of the wave.