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Palm oil: light analysis of palm oil prices in August

Views: 0     Author: Site Editor     Publish Time: 2022-09-09      Origin: Site

Palm oil: light analysis of palm oil prices in August

This month, the Malaysian palm oil futures market shock run, palm oil futures during the month rose and fell, the recent fluctuations in crude oil prices, palm oil market stagnant and stable operation, the market lack of news to guide the direction of the market operation, so the short-term market is light running, the market is currently waiting for Malaysia to release the August shipping report, is expected to be a short-term domestic plate firm operation is dominant, the spot basis difference to maintain a weak trend. At present, the Malaysian palm oil futures market center of gravity rebound, the spot market also followed a wide rebound.

According to the latest data released by the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Crushers Association (SPPOMA), the 1-10 August 2022 Malaysian oil palm fresh fruit string yields increased by 15.42% over the same period last month, the oil yield decreased by 0.53% and palm oil production increased by 12.63%. Data released by shipping survey agency ITS showed that Malaysia's exports of palm oil products from August 1-25 were 966,655 tons, up 10.0% from 878,879 tons in the same period in July, shipping survey agency SGS said. On Monday Indonesia raised its palm oil reference price for the first half of September and export tax to $124 per ton, up from $74 per ton in the second half of August. Indonesia also raised its biodiesel allocation for 2022 to 11.03 million kiloliters, as demand is expected to grow in the fourth quarter. Indonesia's palm oil export reference price and the increase in export tariffs will raise export costs on the one hand and help improve the demand outlook for Malaysian palm oil on the other hand, which is positive for the plate. However, palm oil stocks in Malaysia and Indonesia remain high, and seasonal growth in production, month-end accumulation is expected to be strong so that palm oil lacks sustained upward momentum. A survey released on Monday showed that Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase in August from a year earlier, but the current wet weather and labor tensions may dampen production increases, so keep watching the data on the production side of the horse palm. It is expected that the short-term palm oil market shock run, but also need to pay attention to the follow-up market supply and demand information.

On August 24, coastal edible palm oil stocks increased by 20 million tons (plus 280,000 tons of industrial palm), up 10,000 tons from the same period last week, down 40,000 tons month-on-month and 150,000 tons year-on-year. Among them, 40,000 tons in Tianjin, 75,000 tons in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu and 30,000 tons in Guangdong. The recent domestic palm oil arrivals gradually increased, the basis difference offer under pressure to lower, the current coastal areas palm oil spot basis difference offer generally fell 300 ~ 500 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week.

Although the current domestic palm oil stocks in Indonesia have fallen from the previous high, the overall level is still relatively high and the Indonesian government is still actively taking measures to promote palm oil exports. Malaysian palm oil is in the middle of the production cycle, although labor shortages continue to plague production, but palm oil stocks tend to rise. Although palm oil demand has rebounded due to the pullback in palm oil prices since early June, but overall, the global palm oil market supply and demand pattern has begun to gradually shift to loose, it is expected that short-term palm oil prices continue to surge higher power is relatively limited, after the fourth quarter palm oil prices or will continue to weaken. 

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