Palm oil: crude oil continues to rebound and palm oil fluctuates at a high level

Malaysian palm oil futures market surged. So far, the palm oil futures market has fluctuated at a high level. The impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the disk has been weakened recently, but it is undeniable that the uncertain prospect of the Russian Ukrainian ceasefire has forced global vegetable oil buyers to seek alternative sources of goods. It is difficult to release the supply of Russian Ukrainian sunflower oil in the short term. Under the background of the high price of sunflower oil and Lai oil in the European market and the continuous support of palm oil demand, Russia must pay close attention to its food exports to hostile countries, Because Western sanctions have contributed to the global food crisis and soaring energy prices, although the production of palm oil has entered a seasonal increase period, the Russian Ukrainian problem has been difficult to solve, or the global vegetable oil supply and demand will continue to maintain a tight balance. However, during the Asian electronic trading session on Tuesday, crude oil and soybean oil futures stopped falling and rebounded, regaining all the lost ground on Monday, boosting palm oil prices. So far this year, palm oil has increased by 31.6 percentage points, mainly due to the tight global supply of vegetable oil. The rise of crude oil has improved the demand of vegetable oil in the biofuel industry. Overall, Malaysian palm oil futures may continue to fluctuate at a high level.

Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the number of domestic palm oil ships has been seriously insufficient. The arrival volume of palm oil in April is still low, but the high price suppresses the demand. It is expected that the short-term palm oil storage will continue to operate at a low level, supporting the palm oil basis quotation. At the end of March, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was lower than market expectations, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were at an impasse, the supply of Ukrainian sunflower seed oil was interrupted, and buyers actively looked for palm oil and soybean oil to replace it. The increased demand for edible oil before Eid al Fitr benefited the price of palm oil. At present, Malaysian palm oil has been in the production increase cycle. In addition, the high price of palm oil inhibits export and consumer demand, and the palm oil inventory in later production areas is expected to rise. It is expected that the short-term palm oil price will remain strong, showing a pattern of near strength and far weakness as a whole.