Methanol: market driving force, focusing on energy performance

The results of the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine are still repeated. With the continuous change of the negotiation results, the price trend of oil, coal and gas has reversed continuously, and the methanol market mostly follows the fluctuation. On the whole, the recent high level of the domestic methanol market has fallen. With the gradual release of easing news from Russia and Ukraine, the crude oil price has fallen back to before the beginning of the conflict, the pressure on the cost side of chemicals has eased, and the industry has bearish expectations on the market. The domestic market continues to be in a downward trend. It is difficult to load in some areas under epidemic control, and the transmission of price rise in the industrial chain is not smooth. Some downstream profits are tight and begin to reduce the negative. The demand is weak, and some manufacturers continue to reduce the price to connect with the downstream market. With the release of policy support from key meetings, methanol prices gradually stabilized. After the rebound of crude oil, the confidence of operators was supported, the demand side performance rebounded, and the low price transaction atmosphere was good.

From the cost side, the coal supply remains at a high level, the sales in the mining area has recovered slightly after continuous price reduction, the impact of epidemic prevention and control on transportation is obvious, the turnover rate is poor, the connection between supply and demand is not smooth, and the power coal market will stop falling and stabilize in the short term. The profit level of coal to methanol enterprises mainly declined, and the methanol price fell, resulting in the decline of the profits of production enterprises. Among them, the loss space of coal to methanol was narrower than that in the early part of the week due to the decline of coal price.

The results of the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine are still repeated. With the continuous change of the negotiation results, the price trend of oil, coal and gas has reversed continuously, and the methanol market mostly follows the fluctuation. On the whole, the recent high level of the domestic methanol market has fallen. With the gradual release of easing news from Russia and Ukraine, the crude oil price has fallen back to before the beginning of the conflict, the pressure on the cost side of chemicals has eased, and the industry has bearish expectations on the market. The domestic market continues to be in a downward trend. It is difficult to load in some areas under epidemic control, and the transmission of price rise in the industrial chain is not smooth. Some downstream profits are tight and begin to reduce the negative. The demand is weak, and some manufacturers continue to reduce the price to connect with the downstream market. With the release of policy support from key meetings, methanol prices gradually stabilized. After the rebound of crude oil, the confidence of operators was supported, the demand side performance rebounded, and the low price transaction atmosphere was good.

From the cost side, the coal supply remains at a high level, the sales of mining areas have recovered slightly after continuous price cuts, the impact of epidemic prevention and control on transportation is obvious, the turnover rate is poor, the connection between supply and demand is not smooth, and the power coal market will stop falling and stabilize in the short term. The profit level of coal to methanol enterprises mainly declined, and the methanol price fell, resulting in the decline of the profits of production enterprises. Among them, the loss space of coal to methanol was narrower than that in the early part of the week due to the decline of coal price.

MTO's comprehensive profit performance is still weak, the recent trend of methanol price is slightly weak, while the downstream performance of olefins is relatively stable, and the profit performance has recovered, but it is still at the lowest level over the years. At present, the operation of coal / methanol to olefin unit is still stable. However, recently, due to epidemic prevention and control and cost pressure, some traditional downstream have begun to decline, and the marginal demand has declined.

To sum up, in the future, the price performance of the energy end is still the mainstream guidance of the recent market, the crude oil price rebounded, which has a certain support for the confidence of the industry, and some downstream began to collect goods. After the recent continuous profit transfer of mainland manufacturers, the inventory pressure in the main production areas has been gentle. In March, some domestic methanol units have entered the maintenance, some units have entered the spring inspection, the absolute value of port inventory is also low, and the supply end is stable, medium and strong. However, the operation of Iranian units is stable, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually pick up in late March. From the downstream, the comprehensive profit of MTO continues to weaken in the near future, the epidemic affects the traditional downstream, and the recent performance is difficult to increase, and the upward space of methanol is still suppressed. The short-term methanol market continues to have insufficient room for downward exploration. The domestic methanol market operates in a range of shocks. We pay attention to the peripheral geopolitical risks, whether the negative reduction of petroleum and petrochemical will support the upward movement of olefin prices, and whether the spring inspection this year is weaker than in previous years.