Methanol: analysis of main factors affecting the recent trend of methanol

Recently, the domestic methanol market fluctuates frequently, and the price range is large.

From the supply side, affected by the local environmental protection control, many methanol units in Jincheng, Shanxi Province, stopped near March 20. It was originally planned to stop until the end of April. However, it is understood that Jinfeng, Tianyuan, orchid and other units were ignited and started around March 25, so the supply reduction in Shanxi was not as expected; However, the main production area is expected to enter the peak of spring inspection in April, when the domestic methanol supply will shrink. At present, northwest enterprises shipped smoothly at the beginning of this week, with tight inventory, which has a certain support for the market in the short term.

On the demand side, although there is great pressure on the olefin cost side, the current start-up of methanol to olefin project is maintained at a high level of more than 80%, the purchase of olefins in the port is increased, and Shandong Lianhong has a restart plan in the near future, so the demand of emerging downstream is stable; However, the traditional downstream raw material inventory has rebounded compared with the previous period, and the recent prevention and control measures have affected some regions to choose to reduce the burden, and the overall performance is general.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, with the continuous decline of crude oil inventories in North America, the market lacks the momentum to continuously short crude oil, and the operation of crude oil futures prices will remain relatively high; Coal is still in a slightly tight state of supply, the price remains strong, and the cost is obviously supported by the methanol market.

In the later stage, the epidemic situation in some areas is still severe, the blockade resistance still exists, and more downstream raw materials are prepared in the early stage. Some demand may weaken or be bad for the market. However, the upstream inventory is not much, and the spring inspection in the later stage will be common one after another, especially under the strong overall crude oil and the obvious support of the cost side, it is expected that the short-term market has limited falling space and is dominated by shock as a whole.