Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-09-19 Origin: Site
Methanol: Long and short intertwined, North China methanol runs in shock
In the first half of this week, methanol manufacturers in the main producing areas continued to cut prices before the holiday, and under the unfavorable influence of weak crude oil driving methanol futures down, the overall methanol price in North China was weak.
From the upstream point of view, after the low-price transactions of the main producing areas were smooth this week, the prices were raised again. Affected by the epidemic control in some areas, transportation is restricted, and the freight rate remains high due to the tight transportation capacity, which has a certain support for the downstream arrival cost. At the same time, downstream users such as Lubei also completed pre-holiday stocking. In addition, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, methanol rose rapidly, and the profit of downstream products was significantly compressed, which also affected the user's mood of receiving goods to a certain extent.
In terms of ports, as some ports in East China were affected by typhoon closures, the unloading speed was slow, and port inventories continued to drop sharply. In addition, the probability of maintaining destocking in the later period is relatively high, and the tense situation of the port spot will continue for a period of time, which will form a strong support for the spot price. However, the market rumors that the Sierbang coal-to-olefins unit has failed, and the possibility of a short-term shutdown will not be ruled out in the later period. Whether it is true remains to be seen.
In the short-term, the current competition between supply and demand, coal continues to be strong, and methanol cost support is strong, but the large Northwest plant is nearing production, putting pressure on the market. Long and short are intertwined, and it is expected that the North China methanol market will follow the main production areas before the holiday, and the volatility will be the main one.