Methanol Industry Chain

Methanol Industry Chain

I. Overview of the operation of methanol and the downstream industry chain this month

In January 2023, the price index of methanol and downstream industry chain rose mainly. As of January 30, the price index of methanol industry chain closed at 4004 points, up 5.11% compared with the same period last month. in January, methanol and downstream products were both up and down, among which MTBE was the product with the largest increase, up 10.74%, and methylene shrinkage was the product with the largest decrease, down 6.21%. At the beginning of the month, most of the products in the chemical market rose, but the trend is still under pressure, international crude oil futures prices back below $ 80 per barrel. And concerns about the state of the global economy is the main reason why commodities are difficult to rebound recently. Later, the National Development and Reform Commission released the national economic operation in 2022, preliminary accounting, the annual gross domestic product of 121,020.7 billion yuan, at constant prices, an increase of 3.0% over the previous year. 2022, the national economy withstood the pressure to continue to develop, the total economic volume to a new level. However, the international situation remains complex and severe, and the triple pressure of domestic demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening remains high, and the foundation of economic recovery is still not solid. With the approach of the Lunar New Year holiday, although the partial terminal market trading activity has been reduced, but the overall chemical market, driven by the buying and stocking demand, showing an upward trend. During the holiday period, the periphery is good and demand to start the expected drive, the overall chemical market to continue the upward trend. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve will face an important decision on February 2. The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting, which marks a significant slowdown in its historic pace of rate hikes. With the listing of the new crown oral drug and the convenient vaccination of new vaccines, the impact of the epidemic on the domestic economy has dropped significantly, and the early growth stabilization policies have been gradually implemented after the holidays. The demand side will improve one after another, and the spring peak season will come. In the short term, the chemical market will repair the operation, and it is expected that the short-term methanol and its downstream market or range oscillation will dominate, focusing on the performance of the energy side.

Second, some of the classified products market trends

Methanol: This month, the mainland methanol market shocks up. At the beginning of the month, after the deep downward adjustment of market prices in the early part of the month, traders had short-covering operations. The downstream bidding price in Lubei rose. Methanol prices rose, but due to the rapid rise, downstream resistance has emerged. And subsequently, with the approach of the Spring Festival, downstream users and traders actively stock up before the festival, the market turnover is good, the enterprise shipments are smooth, the mainland methanol manufacturers generally tight inventory. The industry's mentality was boosted and the quotation continued to be raised. In addition, the Chinese New Year capacity is tight, freight prices are high, the market negotiation center of gravity higher. By the middle of the year, the upstream pre-holiday stocking was gradually approaching its end, after which the Chinese New Year industry took their holidays and left the market one after another, and the logistics also stopped working and withdrew from the market, so the market trading turned to be light. Enterprises mainly execute orders. The overall enterprise inventory continues to decline. During the Spring Festival in the northwest transfer order prices rose, the accumulation of limited production enterprise inventory, after the return of traders in the hands of more than no inventory, coupled with the downstream demand for replenishment, upstream factories shipped smoothly, a sharp increase in selling prices, driving the market higher. In the port, before the Spring Festival holiday, the port concentration of unloading and the inflow of low-priced domestic sources, resulting in the slowdown of the main port pickup speed, the port inventory increased significantly. Although the spot price remained firm driven by the futures, but downstream users gradually entered the holiday state, the spot substantial transactions in general. After the long holiday, driven by the mainland market, the port spot offer further higher, but the demand side to be restored, the field more wait-and-see.

Formaldehyde: As of January 30, Shandong region reference 1200-1280 yuan / ton near, Hebei region local reference 1200-1200 yuan / ton, Jiangsu region factory mainstream 1350-1360 yuan / ton tax included. Regional trends in the domestic formaldehyde market this month, the cost support is tentatively stable. At the beginning of the month, formaldehyde factories in the cost of a wide range of upward situation to keep up with the strain, based on the terminal surface generally entered the shutdown holiday phase, the field of formaldehyde demand is difficult to have good support, market transactions are light; in the middle of the month, the market negotiations are few, the mainstream downstream plate factory basically into the end of the holiday, the remaining start-up enterprises on formaldehyde demand is relatively fixed, boosting the market is limited; at the end of the month, the return of the holiday, the field of production enterprises have resumed work, but At the end of the month, after the return of the festival, the production enterprises in the field have been resuming work, but the downstream plate factories are weak in their willingness to resume work, the market negotiation atmosphere continues to be light before the festival, and some enterprises have a declining trend in inventory.

MTBE: In January 2023, the domestic MTBE market shocked higher, up 9.84% at the end of this month compared with the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, the market actively pushed up during the New Year's Day holiday, and the upward trend was more obvious, but the terminal demand was insufficient after the festival, while the international crude oil prices continued to decline, the market was widely adjusted downward, and the downward trend was also more obvious. In the middle of the month, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream operators moderate replenishment, prices rose again, but along with the crude oil up and down oscillation, while the manufacturers also have a certain pressure to discharge before the holiday, the market also fell after pushing up. In the second half of the year, the gasoline market continued to push up under the support of local resource supply tension, MTBE as a raw material for gasoline also showed a push up trend, especially in the northern part of the rise, in addition to the rise in gasoline, the higher prices of raw materials also formed a positive boost to the market, coupled with the early after the inventory of manufacturers after the drainage to a low level, no greater pressure, so the market again pulled up. Overall, this month, a mix of good and bad factors, the market is more frequent, on the whole, compared to last month, higher.

Dimethyl ether: 01 month dimethyl ether market price shaking strong operation, priority shipping. As of January 30, 2023, the national average price of 4,594 yuan / ton, compared with the average price last month rose 50 yuan / ton, up 1.1% ringgit, up 16.0% year-on-year. This month coincides with the New Year's Day and Spring Festival holidays, upstream inventory, downstream stocking, market demand performance is more positive. The beginning of the month coincided with the New Year's Day holiday, after the return of Henan, Hebei and Shandong region prices have been slightly increased, buying interest is still possible. Southwest Chongqing Wanlilai restarted the plant in the evening of January 6, prices were raised by 50 yuan / ton, production and sales were stable. In the middle of the month, with the gradual opening of the Spring Festival pre-stock, the cost and the good atmosphere of the liquefied gas market, Dimethyl Ether market prices gradually increased, but the overall atmosphere is less than the same period in previous years because of the limited support of the market demand. Near the Spring Festival, Henan area, Yong Coal started to release the volume, Lankao holiday parking, the overall market supply is still maintained at a low level, the offer has been adjusted, but the market price adjustment is limited, the atmosphere is running smoothly. After the return of the festival, the market replenishment demand boosted, the seller shipments are relatively smooth, coupled with the cost of successive increases in support, the seller has pushed up slightly, but the market demand support is limited, buy interest to enhance the lack of a wait-and-see atmosphere is obvious.

Acetic acid: In January, the domestic acetic acid market as a whole went up, and the local rise was large. The average industry start-up rate was above 80% during the month, up significantly from last month. While the overall social inventory also continued to be at the level of 180,000 tons, although the supply side provided insufficient good, but the demand for downstream users to stock up before the Spring Festival holiday, especially in North China, as well as the rain and snow weather transportation restrictions, the flow of Northwest supplies to North China region less, local acetic acid plants smooth delivery of inventory generally fell to low levels, so the inventory of northern acetic acid plants fell rapidly, local manufacturers have raised the selling price As a result, the inventory of northern acetic acid plants dropped rapidly and local manufacturers raised their selling prices one after another. However, in East China and South China, the downstream parking or negative downstream entered the holiday state earlier, so the two places before the Spring Festival rose weakly. However, acetic acid prices are already at a low level, and traders are also replenishing goods at low levels. After the long holiday, the price of raw material methanol rose sharply, the cost side support is obvious, as well as some acetic acid factories during the long holiday still have the implementation of the previous order, so the inventory accumulation is not obvious. In anticipation of the recovery of downstream demand, acetic acid plants have increased sharply, and traders holding stocks are also selling at low prices, so it is difficult to find low-priced sources of goods on the field. However, the downstream has not yet started, and some users resumed work after the Lantern Festival, and the local spot transactions were general. As of the end of this month, the mainstream in East China: 3050-3200 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 3050-3150 yuan/ton, Zhejiang 3200-3300 yuan/ton; North China 3100-3150 yuan/ton delivered; South China: 3100-3150 yuan/ton.    

In December 2022, China's methanol imports were at 967,400 tons, up 43.31% year-on-year and 6.94% YoY. Total imports from January to December totaled 12,193,000 tons, accounting for 108.69% of China's total methanol imports last year.

In December 2022, China's methanol exports were at 0.02 million tons, a decrease of 99% year-on-year and 95% YoY. The total exports from January to December totaled 172,900 tons, accounting for 44% of China's total methanol exports last year.

In terms of emerging downstream, the overall coal-to-polypropylene plant start-up rate dropped this month compared with last month, at around 93.90%, with the new maintenance plant Datang Duolun; in terms of traditional downstream, formaldehyde, the start-up rate was adjusted downward compared with last month, with Lankao Huitong and Zhenjiang Li Changrong shutting down for maintenance during the month; in terms of acetic acid, Henan Shunda stopped around January 10, but Henan Longyu restarted, and Hebei Jiantao and other occasional short-stopping devices, which also resumed soon. Dimethyl ether, the industry start rate is higher; Dimethyl ether, Chongqing Wanlilai and Henan Yong Coal Group Longyu Dimethyl ether restarted during the month, but Henan Lankao Huitong Dimethyl ether plant capacity of 100,000 tons / year plant stopped on January 17, 2023 for maintenance, this month coincides with the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturers still maintain low load operation, overall, it seems that the start rate has a small decline compared to last month; MTBE this month, most manufacturers maintain normal start, some Large manufacturers to supply export orders and contract users, downstream operators on the eve of the Spring Festival to replenish the enthusiasm of the reservoir is still possible, the opening rate continues to run high; DMF month Yangzi BASF 40,000 tons / year device after the New Year's Day to resume work, Anyang nine days 120,000 tons / year device before the Spring Festival parking, the specific restart time is not yet determined, Jiujiang Heart to Heart II 100,000 tons / year device put into operation before the holiday, the opening rate is obviously higher; Olefins.

For olefins, next month, there is no new device maintenance, Datang Duolun restarted. It is expected that the start-up rate of coal-based polypropylene plant will be back to a high level next month; formaldehyde, the regional trend of domestic formaldehyde market, cost support is stable for the time being, the downstream support has not yet recovered after the festival, but just demand still exists, the start-up rate is expected to be around 22% next month; acetic acid, the restart time of Henan Shunda is not yet determined, other devices are not heard of overhaul, the overall start-up rate is expected to be stable in the upward trend; dimethyl ether, the market demand has picked up after the festival. Therefore, it is expected that the start rate of dimethyl ether market will be on the upside next month; MTBE most manufacturers maintain normal start during the Chinese New Year, and the start rate of MTBE plant is expected to continue to be high next week; DMF is expected to be slightly higher than the start rate of DMF at the end of this month. Up.

Analysis of the future market

In the future, the oil market is still facing many uncertainties, the market doubts the durability of the Fed's tightening policy, and the demand side needs to consider is that the Asian consumer countries are facing a huge impact of the spread of the epidemic, especially the number of infected people in China and Japan is increasing sharply, which will lead to a phase of fuel consumption damage, therefore, in January 2023 international oil prices may shock down, U.S. crude oil or will In January, it coincides with the domestic Lunar New Year holiday, before the holiday companies stock up on demand, after the holiday companies start to resume work slowly. The supply-demand balance of methanol market is weak, and the cost support is general. In the short term, the chemical market may be weak in finishing operation, and it is expected that the short-term methanol and its downstream market may continue to maintain range oscillation, focusing on the performance of the energy side.

Note on the price of methanol and downstream industry chain on line: The price index of methanol and downstream industry chain is compiled based on the spot prices of methanol and downstream products. We take the month-end valuation of each product in the spot market in East China as the benchmark, and different commodities have different percentages in the index, this percentage is the weight, the weight proportion is formulated according to the correlation between the price trend of methanol and the price trend of its own products, at present, only the price factor is considered, and the liquidity and production data of commodities are not included for the time being. According to the current RMB markup, weights are assigned according to the size of correlation with methanol, with methanol weighting 57%, formaldehyde weighting 15%, dimethyl ether weighting 10%, acetic acid weighting 8%, DMF and MTBE weighting 4% each, and methylal and methane chloride weighting 1%.

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