Glacial acetic acid: how long can the upward path last

Since the middle and early June, the domestic Glacial acetic acid price has been adjusted downward in depth. From June 1 to 20, the price of Glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu dropped as much as 1500 yuan / ton. Downstream users mostly stayed on the sidelines during the early downward adjustment of raw materials, and the raw material inventory remained at a low level. As the price of Glacial acetic acid approached the cost line, downstream users mostly sought bargains for replenishment, and the domestic Glacial acetic acid price hit the bottom and rebounded this week.

In the later stage, although Huayi Shanghai's 700000 T / a Glacial acetic acid plant is about to stop, the load of Shandong Yankuang Lunan Chemical and Nanjing Celanese Glacial acetic acid plants will increase; After the short-term load fluctuation of Jiangsu Thorpe, it also recovered gradually; The overall supply of Glacial acetic acid is still increasing.

From the demand side, the main downstream PTA has been restarted with the early shutdown devices, and the operating rate has increased; It is reported that with the effective control of the epidemic situation in East China, the start-up of local printing and dyeing industries has also increased slightly. In particular, the downstream concentrated replenishment this week and the mood of buying up but not buying down have increased the demand compared with the previous period.

At present, the economic situation is still very grim, and policies at all levels have been implemented one after another. However, it will take time for the downward transmission. At present, the terminal consumption is still in the doldrums, resulting in slow sales of basic chemicals. Among them, the main downstream Glacial acetic acid esters and PTA finished products are not sold smoothly, and the profit is poor or even the loss sales.

In terms of export, there is still a certain supply gap in Europe and the United States, while the inventory in India is still high, and the current purchase intention price is low. The export has maintained a conventional situation, which has not yet been able to stimulate the domestic market.

In the short term, the overall inventory of the society is about 130000 tons, which is still at a low level. In the early stage of the rise in the price of raw Glacial acetic acid, the downstream maintains a relatively positive purchasing nature. It is expected that the short-term Glacial acetic acid price will still maintain an upward trend. However, the expectation of Glacial acetic acid start-up in the later stage is significantly higher, and the sales of downstream finished products are slow, which may limit the price increase and rise cycle.