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English
Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-12-13 Origin: Site
Table of contents
1. Summary of current market situation 2
1.1 Foreign market 2
1.2 Domestic market 3
2. Forecast of the next market trend 4
3.1 Dynamics of foreign installations 5
3.2 Analysis of domestic device dynamics and operating rate 5
3.3 Profit Analysis of Acetic Acid Enterprises 6
3.4 Main downstream profit statistics 7
3.5 Main downstream construction statistics 7
1. Summary of current market situation
1.%2 foreign market
product | area | lowest price | highest price | average price | Weekly ups and downs | price type | unit |
acetic acid | China | 369 | 371 | 370 | +0 | FOB | USD/ton |
acetic acid | Far East | 454 | 456 | 455 | +0 | CIF | USD/ton |
acetic acid | Southeast Asia | 464 | 466 | 465 | +0 | CIF | USD/ton |
acetic acid | south asia | 464 | 466 | 465 | +0 | CIF | USD/ton |
acetic acid | Northwest Europe | 1089.75 | 1090.25 | 1090 | -30 | FOB | Euro/ton |
acetic acid | us gulf | 1095 | 1105 | 1100 | -100 | FOB | USD/ton |
acetic acid | US Gulf * | 46.45 | 46.55 | 46.50 | -4.5 | FOB | cents/lb |
Table 1. Weekly price list of acetic acid in Asia
Figure 1. Price chart of acetic acid in Asia from 2019 to 2022
Asian market: The price of acetic acid in Asia is stable this week, and the transaction is light. After the restart of Shanghai Huayi's 500,000 -ton/year acetic acid production, theThe workmanship was maintained at 70-80 %, and the device was shut down on November 29 due to boiler technical problems .
In the Indian market, the fundamentals of supply and demand are stable , with sufficient inventory, but the demand side is sluggish.
2.%2 Domestic market
Figure 2. Domestic acetic acid price trend chart from 2019 to 2022
area | Mainstream transaction prices last weekend | Mainstream transaction prices this weekend | Change ( - + ) |
Jiangsu area | 3100-3200 | 2950-3100 | -150/-100 |
Zhejiang area | 3250-3350 | 3100-3250 | -150/-100 |
North China | 3000-3200 | 3000-3100 | +0/ -100 |
South China | 3200-3250 | 3100-3150 | -100/-100 |
Table 2. Domestic acetic acid weekly price list
The domestic acetic acid market is weak this week. The acetic acid plant in Henan Shunda is operating at low load, Henan Longyu is still shutting down, and Jiangsu Suopu and Tianjin Bohua Yongli have unexpectedly shut down. The operating rate has dropped to about 70 %, and the overall supply has shrunk. But at the same time, under the influence of the epidemic , most chemical products are facing the double pressure of the accumulation of finished product inventory and high costs . In the context of limited demand, the obvious decline in the operating rate of acetic acid has not produced obvious positive support for the market , because most acetic acid factories still have a certain amount of inventory, and there is currently a demand for storage, so there is no gap in the supply side. Under the bearish mood of the market outlook, some suppliers loosened prices to stimulate transactions, negotiations in mainstream areas weakened, and transactions in the spot market were light . As of this Friday, the mainstream price in East China is 2,950-3,250 yuan/ton, of which Jiangsu area: 2,950-3,100 yuan/ton delivered, 3100-3250 yuan/ton to Zhejiang ; 3000-3100 yuan/ton to North China ; 3100-3150 yuan/ton to South China .
2. Forecast of the next market trend
driving factors | next forecast | driving direction |
supply | Henan Longyu's 500,000-ton/year acetic acid plant was shut down for 45 days for maintenance on November 19. Left and right, Henan Shunda is operating at low load, Jiangsu Thorpe stopped unexpectedly on December 3, and has been driving this week, and we will pay attention to whether the driving is smooth in the later stage; Tianjin Bohua Yongli unexpectedly stopped for 2-3 days this week; Celanese plans to Parking inspection on December 10th It will take 5-7 days to repair, and the operating rate of the industry is low recently. | good |
in stock | Recently, there have been frequent failures of acetic acid plants, and the operating rate of the industry is at a conventionally low level. But at the same time, because the overall start-up of the downstream is not high, and the rigid demand is average, the overall destocking speed is slow. It is understood that currently only a few acetic acid factories have tight inventories, and most of them maintain In the middle or slightly higher level. | neutral |
need | Most of the main downstream PTA factories sold at a loss, so many sets of equipment were shut down, and the overall operating rate dropped significantly. In addition, under the influence of factors such as the epidemic and the macroeconomic downturn , the sales of small and medium-sized downstream finished products are not smooth, and the cost pressure is high, so the parking lot And the phenomenon of negative reduction is common. | Bad news |
Export | At present, Malaysia has restarted and is currently maintaining low-load operation. However, the inventory of acetic acid in the Indian terminal is still at a high level, and the sentiment towards the market outlook is bearish, the buyers are more counter- offers, and the current price gap between buyers and sellers is relatively large. In addition, the recent increase in crude oil prices The decline in production costs in the Middle East and other places is also not conducive to China's acetic acid exports. | neutral |
state of mind | Although the overall social inventory is currently at a medium level, the current negative demand from demand is obvious, and the price of methanol has dropped significantly, and the support from the cost side has weakened. Especially before the Spring Festival, acetic acid factories are mainly active in stockpiling. Be cautious. | bearish |
comprehensive judgment | Downstream starts are low, and users' purchasing intentions are sluggish, and the demand side is obviously negative. There is no gap in the supply of goods, and some holders still focus on active shipments. But at the same time, most acetic acid factories have no inventory pressure, and the price of acetic acid is expected to remain stable next week Weak trend. | ↓0-100 |
3. Charts and detailed data
1.%2 Dynamics of foreign devices
Manufacturer's name | Capacity ( 10,000 tons/year) | Device operation |
Celanese Singapore | 60 | The device is functioning normally |
Malaysia BP | 53 | parking in late november |
Korea BP | 60 | The device is functioning normally |
Taiwan BP | 36 | The device is functioning normally |
Taiwan Changchun Chemical | 45 | The device is functioning normally |
Indian GNFC | 10 | The device is functioning normally |
Saudi Sipchem | 46 | The device is functioning normally |
Daicel | 44 | The device is functioning normally |
Iran Fanavaran Petrochemical | 15 | The device is functioning normally |
Table 3. Summary of operation of international acetic acid plants
2.%2 Analysis of domestic device dynamics and operating rate
area | Manufacturer's name | Capacity ( 10,000 tons/year) | Device operation |
Huadong Region | Nanjing Celanese | 120 | Parking for about a week on December 10 |
Huayi Shanghai | 70 | 2# 450,000 tons parking on the evening of November 28 | |
Jiangsu Thorpe | 140 | Accidental parking on December 3 | |
Yangtze BP | 50 | The device is operating normally, with a daily output of 1,200 tons | |
Anhui Huayi | 50 | 80 % of the device load , 1,000 tons per day | |
North China | Shandong Yankuang Cathay Pacific | 120 | The device is operating normally, with a daily output of 3,300 tons |
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng | 60 | The device load is 80 %, and the daily output is 1300 tons | |
Hebei Kingboard Coking | 50 | The device is operating normally, with a daily output of 1,500 tons | |
Tianjin Bohua Yongli | 35 | Unexpected parking for 2-3 days on December 5 | |
Central China | Henan Shunda | 45 | Low load operation, daily output 650 tons |
Henan Yima Coal Gasification | 20 | Accidental parking on July 19 , 2019 | |
Henan Longyu | 50 | Parking for about 45 days on November 18 | |
North-west region | Shaanxi Yanchang | 40 | The device is operating normally, with a daily output of 1,300 tons |
Sinopec Great Wall Energy | 41 | The device is operating normally, with a daily output of 1,200 tons | |
Southwest Region | Yangzi Acetyl | 50 | The device is operating normally, with a daily output of 1,400 tons |
North-east area | Dalian Hengli | 35 | The device is operating normally, with a daily output of 1,000 tons |
South China | Huayi Guangxi | 50+70 | The device is operating normally, with a daily output of 3,300 tons |
start this week | (12/02-12/08) |
| 71.11% |
Table 4. Summary of operation of domestic acetic acid plants
the restart of Chongqing Yangzi Acetyl on January 10 , 2022 , the production capacity will expand to 500,000 tons
Figure 3. Trend chart of domestic acetic acid operating rate
During this cycle, Henan Longyu is still in a shutdown state, Henan Shunda is operating at a low load, and although Huayi’s Shanghai plant has returned to normal, Tianjin Bohua Yongli and Jiangsu Thorpe parked unexpectedly, and the average industry operating rate is only around 70 % .
3.%2 Profit Analysis of Acetic Acid Enterprises
Figure 4. The theoretical profit trend chart of acetic acid enterprises in East China
This week, the raw material methanol fell sharply, but acetic acid maintained a negative trend due to the obvious negative demand side, and the company was still in a state of loss. As of December 8 , the profit of acetic acid sample enterprises was about -120 yuan / ton.
product | profit last week | Profit this week |
PTA | -53 | -141 |
Vinyl acetate | -2268 | -2154 |
2372 | 2402 | |
Ethyl acetate | -30 | 15 |
Butyl acetate | 123 | 170 |
sec-butyl acetate | 1510 | 1300 |
Chloroacetic acid | 935 | 1400 |
Note: The calcium carbide method is used on vinyl acetate ethylene method
Table 5 Weekly theoretical profit statistics of major domestic acetic acid downstream enterprises this week
4.%2 Main downstream start statistics
| PTA | Ethyl acetate | Butyl acetate | Vinyl acetate | Chloroacetic acid | sec-butyl ester |
Capacity (10,000 tons) | 6980 | 373 | 118 | 270 | 50 | 47 |
2022/12/1 | 68.77% | 56.64% | 62.86% | 54% | 58.1% | 36% |
2022/12/8 | 66.27% | 54.43% | 57.02% | 54.44% | 58.1% | 36% |
