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Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2023-01-05 Origin: Site
Diethylene glycol: the morning forecast of the diethylene glycol market on January 5
| product | Brief Analysis of Polyester Industry Chain Market | price | Trend Forecast |
| PX | Yesterday, the Asian PX market was weak in a narrow range, and the market price was slightly lowered. As of yesterday's close, CFR China Taiwan/Mainland prices fell by US$24/ton to US$939.83/ton. | 920-940 | ↘ |
| cost:From the perspective of cost, dragged down by concerns that the global economic downturn may lead to weak demand, international oil prices continued to decline yesterday. February WTI: 72.84 down 4.09 or 5.32%; March Brent: 77.84 down 4.26 or 5.19%, poor support for the chemical market. | |||
| supply and demand:Downstream PTA futures adjusted weakly yesterday, PTA started to continue at a low level, the demand for PX was relatively limited, and the sluggish terminal demand continued to drag down the market; PX supply is expected to increase, and Guangdong Refining & Chemical’s 2.6 million tons/year new device is expected to be put into operation in mid-January. The market just needs to trade | |||
| predict:It is expected that the PX market may drop slightly today. It is necessary to pay attention to the trend of the upstream and downstream markets and the commissioning of new PX devices. | |||
| PTA | Yesterday, the PTA spot market was weak and fluctuated, and the market price dropped slightly. The negotiated price of PTA spot market was around 5430-5480 yuan/ton. PTA: TA2305 closed at night by 94 yuan / ton to 5370 yuan / ton, opened at 5380 yuan / ton, the highest was 5390 yuan / ton, and the lowest was 5344 yuan / ton. | 5300-5400 | ↘ |
| cost:From the perspective of cost, dragged down by concerns that the global economic downturn may lead to weak demand, international oil prices continued to decline yesterday. February WTI: 72.84 down 4.09 or 5.32%; March Brent: 77.84 down 4.26 or 5.19%, poor support for the chemical market. The new plant of raw material PX is about to be put into production, the market is expected to drop, and the cost support will be weak. | |||
| supply and demand:From the perspective of PTA's own supply and demand, in terms of short-term installations, the Yisheng New Material 1# 3.6 million tons device will start maintenance on January 2, and the restart is pending; Zhuhai BP1# 1.1 million tons device and Tongkun 2# 2.2 million tons device are expected to restart in the near future ; Tongkun Jiatong’s 2.5 million tons of new equipment has been put into operation, of which 1.25 million tons of equipment has been lifted to 80%, and will be increased to full capacity in the future; the other 1.25 million tons of equipment is expected to deliver high-quality products in the near future, and the overall start-up is still operating at a low level. Supply changes are limited. Downstream polyester demand weakens, terminals are mostly closed for holidays, and PTA supply and demand are weak and stable. | |||
| predict:With the cost plummeting and the supply low, it is expected that the PTA market will run in a narrow and weak range today. It is necessary to pay attention to the trend of international oil prices, the maintenance of PTA equipment and whether the downstream demand can improve. | |||
| Ethylene glycol | The market fluctuated and went down yesterday, the buying atmosphere was not good, and the actual transaction was light. The closing price in the East China market was around 3985 yuan/ton. | 3975-3985 | → |
| raw material:Affected by concerns that the global economic downturn may lead to weak demand, international oil prices continued to decline on January 4th. February WTI: 72.84 down 4.09 or 5.32%; March Brent: 77.84 down 4.26 or 5.19%. | |||
| supply:Although there are relatively few planned arrivals to the port during the week, due to the sluggish shipments at the port and the difficulty of destocking, it is expected to remain high, and the launch of new devices will also put pressure on the market, and the supply side lacks positive support. | |||
| need:The downstream has entered the seasonal off-season, and the start-up of polyester factories has continued to decline, falling to around 68%. In addition, the epidemic has affected the shortage of terminal workers, the factories have parked early for holidays, the start-up load has dropped significantly, and the demand for ethylene glycol continues to be weak. | |||
| predict:On the whole, the market lacks upward drive due to weak supply and demand. It is expected to maintain low and volatile operation in the short term. | |||
| diethylene glycol | The market fluctuated and went down yesterday, the overall trading atmosphere was not good, and the actual transaction was light. The closing price in the East China market was around 5220 yuan/ton. | 5200-5220 | ↘ |
| raw material:Affected by concerns that the global economic downturn may lead to weak demand, international oil prices continued to decline on January 4th. February WTI: 72.84 down 4.09 or 5.32%; March Brent: 77.84 down 4.26 or 5.19%. | |||
| supply:Recently, the port shipments have dropped to a low level, and the inventory has accumulated in a narrow range. As of Wednesday, the inventory in the two warehouses was 25,000 tons. | |||
| need:At the end of the year, downstream factories parked for holidays, and the willingness to stock up on the eve of the Spring Festival was not strong, and it was difficult to have too much support on the demand side to maintain just-needed purchases. | |||
| predict:On the whole, it is expected that the diethylene glycol market will maintain a range-bound operation in the short term, and continue to pay attention to changes in port inventory in the later period. | |||
| polyester filament | Yesterday, the quotations of mainstream polyester filament manufacturers rose slightly by 50-150, and the focus of market transactions continued to move up, and the overall buying momentum continued to be poor. As of around 15:30 yesterday afternoon, the average production and sales of polyester filaments were estimated at 35%, which was a decrease from the previous day. 3%. | 7200-7350 | → |
| cost:European and American crude oil futures closed sharply yesterday, the raw material PTA futures spot was weak and fluctuated, and another major raw material ethylene glycol dropped slightly. The theoretical polymerization cost was calculated at 6043 yuan/ton yesterday, which was about 105 yuan/ton lower than the previous day’s theoretical polymerization cost. The center of gravity of polymerization costs has shifted downwards, which has weak support for the polyester yarn market. | |||
| supply and demand:Due to the impact of the epidemic in the off-season of the terminal, most factories parked during holidays, and they are not very enthusiastic about stockpiling polyester yarn | |||
| predict:It is expected that today's polyester market will consolidate slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in cost and terminal demand. | |||
| Polyester staple fiber | Yesterday, the quotations of polyester staple fiber factories were basically stable, and the market transaction prices were consolidating. The overall trading atmosphere was relatively light. As of around 15:30 yesterday afternoon, the average production and sales of polyester staple fiber were estimated to be around 35%, an increase of 9% from the previous day. | 7000-7100 | ↘ |
| cost:European and American crude oil futures closed down sharply yesterday, raw material PTA futures spot was weak and fluctuated, and another major raw material ethylene glycol dropped slightly. The theoretical polymerization cost was calculated at 6,043 yuan/ton yesterday, and the theoretical polymerization cost dropped by about 105 yuan/ton from the previous day. , The center of gravity of aggregation costs has shifted downwards, and the support for the polyester staple market is weak. | |||
| supply and demand:The start of terminal work continues to decline, and the mood for polyester staple purchases is not high | |||
| predict:It is expected that today's polyester staple market may run slightly weaker. Need to pay attention to changes in cost and downstream demand |
