DMF: rebound after oversold, still waiting for demand to pick up

In the first ten days of April, the domestic DMF market fell by a cliff, with a cumulative price decline of more than 2800 yuan / ton. Then it began to rebound rapidly after the middle of the year. In only four working days, the market rose by more than 1000 yuan, and there is still expectation of further rise.

The main reason is that recently, the main factories continued to make profits and reduce inventory, partially reduced the operating load, and the pressure on the supply side decreased. Last Friday, the ex factory price in Shandong fell, gradually reaching the psychological expectations of downstream manufacturers and traders. In addition, the news of factory price support was released from the market, which stimulated some buyers to enter the market one after another and increased on-site buying gas, thus supporting the rapid rebound of DMF market price.

However, due to the impact of public health events in many places, transportation has not been restored. The demand of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the main production place of Pu slurry in the downstream, is weak, the slurry load continues to be low, and the overall demand side is still depressed. Therefore, the price rebound is strong, mainly due to the leading role of the upstream in the market.

In the future, the focus of the market is still on the mitigation of the epidemic and the recovery of demand. Judging from the recent epidemic situation, Jilin Province, one of the provinces with the most serious epidemic in this round, has achieved social clearance. At present, Shanghai has also carried out closed management for a period of time, and the number of new infections per day has slowed down to a certain extent, which will support the risk appetite of the market. In addition, the Ministry of transport recently issued a notice to deploy to strengthen the smooth and smooth waterway transportation. If the transportation conditions improve, there is a possibility of marginal improvement.

However, when the current demand has not fully recovered, there is still resistance to the downward transmission of costs, or inhibit the rebound space of DMF market. Beware of the possibility of subsequent price rise and fall. It is recommended to cover positions carefully and fast in and fast out. It is expected that the trend reversal of DMF market will occur only after the economic stabilization and the easing of the epidemic situation.