DMF: New production capacity put into operation VS old equipment overhaul can Jinjiu market continue to rebound

DMF: New production capacity put into operation VS old equipment overhaul can Jinjiu market continue to rebound

Entering August, under the background that the new production capacity has not been fully put into production, due to the shutdown of some original old installations for maintenance, the domestic DMF market has rebounded. However, there was no significant improvement in downstream demand, and the market lacked continuous upward momentum. After a short rise, the market mostly focused on consolidation. Up to now, the market price in East China has risen by around 400 yuan/ton from the end of last month.

Since the first half of the month, the main reason for the rise of the DMF market is that the supply side has started to decline and the supply pressure has decreased. At the beginning of the month, there was a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. With the intention of buying to lower prices, factories negotiated large orders to make profits, which fell to the 10,000-yuan mark, and the focus of market discussions showed a downturn. However, with the shutdown of the Jiutian plant in Anyang for maintenance, the factory's price-preserving mentality has become prominent. Shandong's main factories canceled the pre-reservation policy and released a price-supporting signal. At the same time, the holders of the secondary market began to converge after lowering their intentions, followed by further quotations from the factory. Rising, the center of gravity of the cost support holder's offer began to follow up, and the market showed a rebound.

At present, the market is most concerned about the situation on the supply side, such as the situation of factory maintenance and planned maintenance and the release of new production capacity.

According to statistics, the current domestic DMF operating rate is around 65%. Among them, Henan Junhua's 30,000-ton/year unit resumed normal operation after a short overhaul on August 8; the overhaul unit is 120,000 tons in Anyang Jiutian, and it is expected to resume operation at the end of August. ; From the end of August to mid-September, Shaanxi Xinghua plant plans to shut down for maintenance; Shandong Luxi Chemical also has maintenance expectations in September, but the specific time has not been determined. Overall, the planned maintenance capacity of DMF enterprises in September is expected to be 250,000 tons.

In August, the DMF industry began to face a new round of production cycle: Anhui Jinhe Chemical Plant was put into trial operation in early August. Its products are mainly used to produce sucralose, and a small amount is exported. At present, the product quality is still being adjusted; Jiujiang, Jiangxi The connected device is expected to be put into the market in late August, and product output is planned before the end of the month.

In addition, in terms of demand, there has been no significant improvement in downstream construction in August, and due to the impact of high temperature weather in East China, some downstream enterprises have staggered production, the demand side is weak, the downstream mentality is generally poor, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is also low. However, with the gradual change in temperature, and based on the expectations of gold, nine and silver ten in previous years, the downstream construction is expected to improve, but the strength of demand improvement still needs attention.

On the whole, the DMF market ushered in a wave of new production capacity in the third quarter, and the supply and demand of DMF will usher in a new pattern. However, from late August to September, if domestic DMF enterprises are overhauled as planned, the supply is expected to decrease, and the market price may be expected. Strong, does not rule out that there is still some room for rebound. Specifically, it is necessary to pay attention to the follow-up equipment maintenance, the commissioning of new equipment and the recovery of downstream demand.