Chemical weekly up and down brief analysis: chemical market repair rise

Chemical weekly up and down brief analysis: chemical market repair rise

Oil prices show bottoming rebound momentum, oil prices fell to $ 86 at the lowest point, the high point when the recovery to nearly $ 95, crude oil market wide oscillation is dominated by oil prices around the game between oil-producing countries and hyperinflationary countries. High temperature weather supply chain upstream generally weak supply and demand, power restrictions, production cuts and other effects, the chemical industry as a whole starts at a relatively low level, to a certain extent to offset the impact of poor demand to the market, the chemical market decline slowed down during the week, more restorative rise.

According to the 64 important chemical products monitored by ChemNet, only 36 varieties rose this week, accounting for 56.25%, 19 products fell, accounting for 29.69%, 9 flat products, accounting for 14.06%, the top three products were butanone (↑9.62%), o-benzene (↑7.43%), acetic acid (↑7.14%). The top three declining products are DMC (↓5.88%), acrylic acid (↓5.63%), butyl acrylate (↓3.37%).

Up list.

Butanone: This week, the domestic butanone market continued to rise. Raw material ether after the price of carbon IV rose significantly, the cost side support increased, Shandong main butanone manufacturers offer continued to push up, supporting the market price continued to rise. But with the rapid price increases, due to the downstream start is still low, demand to follow up limited, coupled with the previous individual overhaul devices are expected to restart, the market mentality has been suppressed, the purchase intention is cautious, near the end of the week to continue to rise power is insufficient, digestion and finishing.

O-xylene: This week, the domestic o-xylene market trend strong up continued, the factory listing price continues to stabilize, but the overall market supply is tight, the supplier shortage is serious. The downstream phthalic anhydride market continued to rise steadily, and the o-phthalmic market rose sharply in a stable manner. It is expected that the market will continue to rise as the o-phthalmic anhydride start-up continues to pick up and the demand for o-phthalmic continues to rise.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market was steadily higher this week. After a long period of deep downward adjustment, acetic acid prices have broken through the cost line, and major manufacturers have limited production and price protection intentions, with some acetic acid plants starting to work down. The downstream users and traders mostly kept low inventory in the early stage, but after the price stabilized, they actively took over the goods to replenish the inventory, and the shipment speed of acetic acid plants improved significantly. But at the same time, because the downstream demand did not improve substantially, the stage of replenishment followed by wait-and-see, the supply side is also more cautious to adjust upward, acetic acid prices this week moderate upward.

Decline list.

DMC: Dimethyl carbonate market was weakly down this week, and the field concessions to promote single. Supply-side Saning, Shi Da Quanzhou, Red Sifang, China Science, Shunxin and Feiyang are continued to stop, and Shi Da Jining device is also stopped, but the Zhejiang Petrochemical plant to 90%, Chongqing plant opening unstable, the overall field variable changes; downstream PC and electrolyte and other phased procurement, the impact of power restrictions on devices in the region, coupled with the downstream look at the domestic DMC market is easy to fall difficult to rise, the downstream more wait-and-see waiting for the market Further fermentation, the industry into the market mentality is not good, the region's enterprises are slightly poor, some enterprises have certain concessions flexible promotion single. During the cycle, although Shi Da Jining device parking maintenance, in the drive plan to continue to postpone, but the Red Square device is about to start, the overall atmosphere in the field is still pessimistic.

Acrylic acid and butyl ester: This week, the domestic acrylic acid and butyl ester market is running down, the overall decline is limited. During the week, the raw materials propylene and butanol are narrow finishing, the cost side support is not much change. During the week, the factory quotations were high, the market surface negotiation atmosphere is not enough, the terminal demand has not substantially improved, the field trading follow-up is slow, the market negotiation center of gravity is loosening, the industry wait and see mentality is obvious, the negotiation more maintain just demand for procurement.

Polymeric MDI: This week, the domestic polymeric MDI market shocks to run lower. The first half of the week, the domestic polymeric MDI market is weak, Shanghai factory weekly price stabilized at 15,400 yuan / ton, the factory supply is relatively stable, the trade market confidence is slightly lacking, the offer is stable as the market shipments, some small concessions negotiation, the existence of low-priced offers heard, the downstream wait-and-see mentality, just a small single inquiry, follow up indifferent, the second half of the week, the polymeric MDI market oscillation running low, some imported sources of goods to the port. By the impact of low-priced imported sources, the trade market is more willing to ship, concession negotiations to promote a single, low-priced offers are active, the downstream just need a small single inquiry, near the end of the month, more in the wait-and-see factory knot hanging price guidelines, follow up slowly.

Our view.

September the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to a restricted level and remain high for a period of time, next year will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates, forming a disincentive for commodity prices. In the implementation of a package of policies to stabilize the economy at the same time, and then the implementation of 19 successive policies, involving housing credit, platform economy, etc., immediately sent to stabilize the economy of the general supervision and service working group to the local joint office . The "golden nine silver ten" will arrive, some products demand marginal improvement, but the strength is limited. Short-term view of the chemical market oscillation finishing operation.