Caustic soda market trends

Caustic soda market trends in 2022 and outlook for 2023

In the first quarter, the average price of caustic soda market was 3,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of January and rose to about 4,400 yuan/ton on February 21, with a price increase of 25.71%. the main reason for the price increase from January to February was mainly due to the tightening of liquid soda supply, forming a certain favorable trend for caustic soda. Market trading is active, the flake soda market supply is not much, the enterprise more inventory low. In addition, liquid alkali prices rose on the price of caustic soda has support. From February 21 flake soda price 4400 yuan / ton down 3933.33 yuan / ton, the price down 10.61%. Because the earlier shipments are better, this phase of the flake soda start higher, but the downstream takeover is more general than the previous period, the enterprise shipments turn light.

In the second quarter, the price of flake soda continued to rise, and the average market price of flake soda was RMB3,933.33/ton on April 1, and RMB4,866.67/ton at the end of June, with a price increase of 23.73%. At this stage, there is no inventory pressure on flake soda manufacturers, and there are restrictions on transportation due to public health events, so the market supply is relatively tight, and the price of flake soda is moving up. In addition, the supply of liquid soda is also tight, there are data show that at this stage, Shandong area caustic soda overhaul unit capacity of roughly 1.07 million tons, accounting for about 10% of the total capacity of Shandong.

In the third quarter, the price of caustic soda showed a "W" trend in July, and the average price of caustic soda was 4866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of July, and 4500 yuan/ton on July 31, down 7.53%. The average market price was RMB 4,466.67/ton on August 1, and RMB 4,800/ton on August 28, with a price increase of 7.46%. In the northwest, the supply side of individual enterprise overhaul, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia regional market supply are tight, enterprise pre-sale time is longer, enterprise shipments smooth. 29 August to the end of September flake soda price consolidation, from 4700 yuan / ton down to 4666.67 yuan / ton, this stage of the domestic flake soda market is stable wait and see, merchants for the market after a certain bearish mood, this stage to maintain the general market.

In the fourth quarter, the price of caustic soda tended to consolidate after the upward movement. The average market price at the beginning of this quarter was 4666.67 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of this quarter was 4783.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.5%. The main reason for the upward trend at this stage is that the northwest region is affected by public health events to support the price of caustic soda, traders are active in the market, the trading atmosphere is good. November and December caustic soda prices tend to consolidate, caustic soda downstream part of the start load down, the demand for caustic soda is general, the downstream more just need to purchase mainly, the enterprise shipments are general.

   At this stage, the price of caustic soda is mainly stable, the market trading atmosphere is general, the downstream more on-demand procurement. Near the Spring Festival, enterprises have a preparation plan, but the two sides of the supply and demand game, the procurement volume is also more limited, comprehensive expected January flake soda prices or continue the trend of narrow fluctuations. However, as the weather warms up after the year, the downstream enterprises of caustic soda will start working at a higher load, and the demand for caustic soda may rise, and the price may pick up, depending on the downstream market demand.