Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-03-12 Origin: Site
According to the analysis, "from the end of last year to now, nitrogen, phosphorus and compound fertilizers have increased in varying degrees, with the increase ranging from 500-700 yuan / ton." The most important reasons for the price rise are still two aspects: "the first is the decline of production capacity. In terms of environmental factors, the government shut down some small enterprises that failed to meet the environmental inspection standards, some enterprises changed coal to gas, etc. In addition, after three years of downturn, spontaneous adjustment of the industry, survival of the fittest, shut down many small and medium-sized enterprises. Take Shandong Province as an example. In June 2016, the statistics show that there are 1507 enterprises in Shandong Province that have started production of chemical fertilizer, organic fertilizer and biological fertilizer. By September 2016, there are 270 enterprises that are still in production. At present, there are only 200 enterprises that are still in production. Second, the positive factors of zero tariff. After the introduction of zero tariff, the industry's overall expectation of exports in 2017 is higher, and the pricing of the domestic market is also getting tough. " In addition, the previous low price and high production cost make the retaliatory rebound of fertilizer price inevitable.
However, despite these short-term factors, in the medium and long term, Zhu Shuyao believes that China's fertilizer industry will be in a downward range for quite a long time. In the final analysis, this is related to China's agricultural related policies. "It is an indisputable fact that the state should promote zero growth of pesticides and fertilizers. In the long run, the overall demand for fertilizers in China is shrinking, and overcapacity still exists. The existence of overcapacity means that there is still fierce competition in the market, and the most powerful weapon of market competition is price, so the price of fertilizer is likely to be depressed for quite a long time. "
In addition to the environmental factors, this price correction is closely related to the market status. "The performance of winter storage in Northeast China is very poor this year, coupled with the adjustment of planting structure, farmers are uncertain about the types of crops to be planted, so the market cannot start naturally, which has a great impact on fertilizer use." Northeast China is the epitome of the whole domestic market this year. The decline of fertilizer price is closely related to the disadvantage of grass-roots supply. It is expected that the price correction will continue. Although the range will not be too large, the price of fertilizer may fluctuate before the end of spring ploughing.
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