Acetic acid: The market is in a consolidation phase

Acetic acid: The market is in a consolidation phase

Since the second half of October, domestic acetic acid factories have once again entered a loss-making stage. However, after the National Day, the price of acetic acid continued to decline for downstream users, so the inventory of raw materials was mostly kept at a low level. As the price of acetic acid reached the psychological price of users, some users were more motivated to purchase. By the end of October, the domestic acetic acid price stopped falling and stabilized. . And with the opening of the new contract cycle, the supply of low-priced goods in the market has decreased, and the focus of some discussions has even increased.

On the supply side, Hualu Hengsheng's 600,000-ton/year acetic acid plant was shut down for maintenance on October 26 for about a week; Henan Shunda's 450,000-ton/year plant was originally planned to be shut down on November 5; other plants have not heard of any maintenance plans. , it is initially expected that the operating rate of the industry will remain around 8.5% in the later period; in terms of inventory, since the National Day holiday, the supply side has been relatively sufficient, and downstream users are not very motivated to purchase raw materials, resulting in a social inventory of acetic acid at the level of 200,000 tons.

On the demand side, the main downstream PTA and acetate are relatively stable, and the large downstream demand is relatively stable. However, the epidemic situation in some parts of the country has become serious again, affecting the small and medium-sized downstream construction, and significantly suppressing the mentality of the industry. At present, downstream users maintain normal procurement of raw materials, and the demand side is generally average.

For export, at present, except for Lyondell's acetic acid plant in the United States, which is shut down and the INEOS plant is running unstable, the rest of the acetic acid plant is running stably, and the foreign supply gap is not large. However, the current stock of acetic acid in India is at a relatively high level, local importers are generally interested in purchasing, and exports are also maintained at a conventional level, which cannot yet drive the domestic market.

In the short term, the fundamentals of supply and demand are relatively weak, and industry players are cautious. But at the same time, there is a bottom-up effect on the cost side, and the market is expected to remain volatile.