Toluene and xylene: the oil market is cloudy and sunny, and the center of gravity of benzene is difficult to maintain

Toluene and xylene: the oil market is cloudy and sunny, and the center of gravity of benzene is difficult to maintain

The foundation of high oil prices is being shaken. Although the supply and demand have not actually improved significantly, the overall supply in the market is still tight in some areas. The price management of OPEC+ will still support the bottom of the price, but the change in market sentiment is carrying risks. Assets have collectively declined, and global stock markets and commodity markets are suffering from a lack of liquidity. At the end of September, the Bank of England's rescue of the market once cheered the market, but the Bank of England was forced to abandon its comprehensive tightening strategy to a certain extent, which also means that economic management is under great pressure. It will put pressure on the global oil market, and the restrictions imposed by Western countries on Russia's oil prices may have a barrel effect, that is, European and American oil prices will passively approach Russia's crude oil export prices. The only variable in the market is whether OPEC+ can make a big move to reduce production at the production policy meeting on October 5 to restore the market decline. It is judged that OPEC+ will start a new round of production cuts of 500,000 to 800,000 barrels per day. It will help oil prices to stabilize near the high oil price range, but it is still difficult to support oil prices to return to the trend of rising. It is expected that the WTI price of US crude oil will run in the range of US$78-86 per barrel, but if the confrontation between Russia and the West further deteriorates, or if OPEC+ takes aggressive rescue measures, then international oil prices may still quickly get rid of the slump and turn into an upward trend.

This week, the toluene-US dollar intraday spread between South Korea and South Korea narrowed to US$5/ton. There is insufficient arbitrage space between China and South Korea. The CFR China toluene conversion price is higher than the market negotiated price in the East China market on Thursday, and the US dollar market is favored. Port inventories were low this week, and the supply side was well supported. On the demand side, the focus of pure benzene fell during the week, and the price difference of "pure benzene-toluene" narrowed to around -15 yuan/ton compared with last week. The profit of toluene disproportionation was insufficient, and the support for toluene was insufficient; refined oil products fell this week, and toluene related The demand for oil adjustment is sluggish; the TDI market talks are firm, but the demand follow-up is slow, and the intention to purchase raw materials is general; the overall demand side support is flat. It is expected that toluene will mainly run with weak shocks in the short term.

This Tuesday, the price difference between CFR China and FOB Korea in the toluene dollar disk turned negative to about -17 US dollars / ton, and there was insufficient arbitrage space. The conversion price of CFR in China is lower than the price negotiated in the East China isomerized xylene market on Friday, and the U.S. dollar market is negatively dominated; from the perspective of supply, the port inventory remains low, and the recent new production capacity is expected to be put on the market, and the supply side is supported flat; from the demand side , the overall start of PX fell to about 78.22% in a narrow range, the support for isomerized xylene was general, the oil adjustment market was light during the week, and the support for paraxylene was insufficient; the overall support on the demand side was flat. It is expected that xylene will mainly run with weak shocks in the short term.