The short-term glycol market is expected to be weak and stable

The futures market was weak and stable yesterday, and the market trading atmosphere was general. East China market closed at around RMB 4220-4230/ton.

Raw materials: China's January-February foreign trade and crude oil imports weakened year-on-year, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said he would accelerate interest rate hikes, terminal interest rate levels or more than expected, foreign time March 7 European and American oil prices plunged more than 3%. April WTI: 77.58 down 2.88 down 3.58%; May Brent: 83.29 down 2.89 down 3.36%.

Supply: On the device side, Saudi Arabia has completed a 910,000 tons / year of MEG plant maintenance as planned in the recent successful restart, the device was previously stopped in early February. The restart of a 200kt/y syngas to ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi was postponed to near the end of March, and we will continue to follow up on the follow-up of the plant; the plant was stopped in early December 2022 and was scheduled to restart near mid-March. Port inventory still remains high, the port shipment rate began to decline, the port is expected to be a small accumulation of storage. Imports in March will be a small increase of about 520,000 tons with the arrival of Iranian cargoes.

Demand: At present, glycol factories are under pressure of current shipments, and downstream polyester factories are currently maintaining 17.4 days of reserve level, which is at a historically high level, with insufficient willingness to further replenish.

Forecast: From a comprehensive point of view, with crude oil rising, inventory at a high level and domestic supply increment clear, but the demand side recovery is nearing the end, the short-term glycol market is expected to be weak and stable.