Styrene: analysis of styrene import data in April

Import data

According to the customs data, the cumulative import volume of styrene in China from January to April 2022 was 432500 tons, a significant decrease of 187200 tons or 30.21% compared with the same period last year, continuing the downward trend of import volume. In the past two years, China's styrene import pattern has gradually changed greatly, and the high import volume has been declining. In April this year, the import volume fell below 100000 tons to 45900 tons for the first time in a single month, the lowest monthly import volume record in 10 years. Compared with the highest monthly import volume of 422500 tons in September 2015, the decrease was as high as 376600 tons or 89.14%. It indicates that the history of high styrene import in China is no longer.

Compared with the import data of the same period last year, the import volume showed a trend of decreasing and increasing. On the one hand, since this year, the international energy conflict in Russia and Ukraine has strained the supply of the global energy market, the oil price has continued to break through the upward trend, the European Union has imposed an oil embargo on Russia, and the wars and epidemics between Russia and Ukraine have continuously triggered global inflationary pressure. The oil price is expected to remain high for a short time. At a time when the risk of economic recession is rising, oil prices should continue to be supported. Low oil inventories and the shrinking spare capacity of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) support that oil prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. At the same time, it also provides cost support for the price of oil derivatives. Driven by the cost of crude oil and pure benzene, styrene has maintained a relatively strong trend from January to may, driving up the price center of styrene.

However, due to the continuous expansion of China's styrene production capacity and the rapid growth of production capacity, the import volume to overseas is bound to be squeezed. According to statistics, in 2021, China's new styrene production capacity was 2.67 million tons, with a growth rate of around 22.28%. Up to now, the actual production capacity of styrene in 2022 was 2million tons / year, with a growth rate of 16.68% compared with last year. In the first half of the year, there were still two sets of devices in trial production, including the 450000 tons po/sm device of Tianjin Bohai Chemical and the 400000 tons / year device of Maoming Petrochemical. It is expected that the products will be offline in June, It is expected that the growth rate of production capacity may increase to 23.8%. It can be predicted that the growth rate of new production capacity in 2022 will be significantly higher than that in 2021. Therefore, the domestic production capacity reached a new high. Domestic and imported sources of goods continue to rebalance.

According to the customs data, China's styrene exports totaled 186700 tons from January to April 2022, an increase of 38700 tons or 126.11% over the same period from January to April 2021. In April, the high export level reached 100000, which was also the best export volume in a single month in history. With the sharp jump in export volume, it is expected that the total export volume of the whole year will significantly exceed that of last year. Since the first half of this year, the arbitrage window from Asia to Europe and the United States has continued to open. The rising energy, the tight supply in Europe and the United States, and the inflationary pressure have made the price of the US dollar high, significantly higher than that of Asia, with a huge price difference, Attract Asian goods to Europe and other places. It is expected that with the balance of supply and demand in Europe and the United States, the supply of goods will be supplemented, and the arbitrage space from Northeast Asia to overseas will be reduced, which will reduce the arbitrage interest of exporters. At the same time, although the RMB depreciated in the short term, it maintained two-way fluctuations. In addition, the risk factors such as overseas epidemic, crude oil and trade relations are uncertain. The export situation may ease in the second half of the year. However, considering the expansion of domestic production capacity, export is still a necessary way out.