Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-02-22 Origin: Site
During the Spring Festival, overseas crude oil and commodities rose collectively, crude oil rebounded broadly and hit another seven-year high. Recently, WTI approached the 95 mark, another seven-year high. Concerns about major energy producer Russia's invasion of Ukraine are increasing, adding to worries about tight global crude oil supply. Mr Mick Dijon mutant strain influence weaker than expected demand for oil, and some oil-producing countries is hampered by inadequate investment and instability, hard as expected to increase production, the actual oil output is lower than the target, there are also Iran nuclear talks resume, situation in Ukraine and the United States government to crack down on oil prices and other uncertain factors of disturbance, crude oil prices in the short term will continue in high volatility. After the holiday, driven by energy costs, the focus of pure benzene and styrene-related products rose, but limited to the fundamentals of styrene supply and demand are weak, the market is mixed, the performance is unstable, and the price has retreated from the peak.
In addition to the strong performance of crude oil in the near future, the pure benzene market associated with a larger positive rise, due to the background of rising oil prices, smooth shipment of enterprises, relatively optimistic downstream demand, some derivatives in the first half of the year, a number of units put into production, driving the pure benzene demand is good, the supply side is tight. Spot although there is also a profit consolidation trend after the pull up, but overall, the pure benzene center of gravity is relatively strong, with the downstream resumption of active production, still can support the current pure benzene market.
Pure benzene and styrene post-holiday inventory data contrast can be seen on the graph, styrene inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival is larger, the data of market rebounded sharply rising pressure, pure benzene inventory performance curve is relatively mild, inventory no drastic fluctuations, and light is a bit down trend, thus it can be seen that the raw material of pure benzene is easy up to down, on the one hand, the raw material cost of styrene and move with rose, But the supply situation is not optimistic, and there is little room for a rebound. Digestion of styrene inventory still needs time to reflect, pay attention to the downstream resumption of production rhythm and export channel support.
After the rapid rise in the price of styrene, the profit has been repaired to some extent, but the raw materials are difficult to reduce, and the strength of the rebound of the styrene market is general, so the overall profit of the enterprise is still negative. Driven by the rising price of raw fuel, the cost of styrene production has risen, and the cost of pure benzene and ethylene has risen significantly in recent stage. Calculate the current corporate profit of non-integrated manufacturers as -510. Short - term styrene production costs are still high, styrene prices have a supportive role.
After the holiday, the operating rate of the main terminal industry is gradually increasing, and the quotation is rising, but the demand is slow to follow, the EPS operating rate is low, PS and ABS and other industries also have a certain inventory, the purchase interest of raw materials after rising. According to statistics, the three main downstream operating rate, EPS enterprises during the Spring Festival to reduce the negative and stop production than PS and ABS industry, the recovery of the terminal is also slow, the current EPS operating rate is about 25%, the subsequent factory gradually negative, PS and ABS starting load 77% and 89% respectively. The northern part of the winter Olympic Games affected the temporary load slowly.
The recovery in global oil demand is likely to exceed expectations this year as economic activity rebounds and travel picks up. While oil prices are facing some headwinds, Iran's nuclear negotiators are moving closer to a deal. Expectations of a pullback in high crude oil have increased. Mid-february will see a number of big data and the March Fed rate hike. Economists expect the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points in March. Secondly, the spread of the epidemic is still taking place, there are still many uncertain factors, coupled with the supply pressure of styrene itself, the new production capacity in the first quarter of the market release pressure, the acceptance of demand needs to be observed, the styrene market should not be too optimistic. It is advisable for people in the industry to cooperate with short-term supply and demand mismatch for short-term strategy.