Soda ash: the rise is suspended, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong

This week, the domestic soda ash market trend is stable and the market atmosphere is general. The domestic synthetic ammonia market is divided regionally, and the overall focus is shifted upward. Affected by the end of the Winter Olympics, the industrial demand of various regions has increased, and Shandong took the lead in leading the rise of 20-150 yuan; Affected by the joint effect, the surrounding markets in Hebei and Jiangsu followed up slightly; The shutdown of devices in Jiangxi and other places has led to smooth shipment in Anhui and Zhejiang, and the price has increased. In the middle of the week, affected by the weak decline of urea in the downstream and the negative increase of supply in Shanxi and other regions, the low price of Henan and Shaanxi led to a strong atmosphere of market outlook in Central China. The overall high level remained stable, and some fell individually. Up to now, the market trend is still relatively differentiated, and enterprises adjust flexibly according to local and their own supply and demand. In the later stage, the ammonia market is both positive and negative, and the market continues to be sorted out.

This week, in the stable and adjusting production area of the steam coal market, the main producing areas maintained more normal production, and the overall supply of coal remained stable. After the adjustment of the coal price in the early stage, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream areas was improved, the demand for chemical coal was strong, and the sales situation of the coal mines continued to sell well. The sales of the mining areas were mainly focused on the "long Concord" and "rigid demand", and the market consumption differentiation was relatively small. Most coal mines are in the state of producing and selling without coal storage. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly held a meeting with the coal directors of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia to analyze the current coal market price, study the sampling and release of coal price index and stabilize the market coal price. At present, the coal price is mostly kept within a reasonable range, and some coal mines fluctuate and adjust within the price limit due to demand support. The main producing areas maintained normal production, the supply of coal remained stable, the downstream demand was released, the procurement increased, the queuing phenomenon of pull vehicles was widespread, and most of the coal mines did not accumulate coal. Influenced by the policies, the coal prices were mostly maintained in the price limits, and the short-term adjustment of the dynamic coal market was expected.

Future forecast: the soda ash market is stable and dynamic this week, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is relatively mild. The unit operates smoothly and individual output adjustment has little overall impact. The maintenance of Jiangsu Shilian and Xuzhou Fengcheng units was completed, and the production gradually returned to normal; The load of Shandong Haihua has increased and the daily output has increased. The start-up load of Southern alkali industry was reduced; The equipment of Hubei double ring plant is planned to be overhauled in March. The shipment of enterprises is relatively smooth, the orders of manufacturers are sufficient, and the orders of some manufacturers are arranged until the end of March. The inventory maintained a downward trend, with an inventory of 1398600 tons this week, a month on month decrease of 179600 tons. In terms of demand, the futures price fluctuates, the downstream demand of light alkali is slightly weak, and most manufacturers mainly execute early orders; The wait-and-see atmosphere at the downstream of heavy alkali is still strong. Near the end of the month, the prices of some enterprises are adjusted flexibly. It is expected that the domestic soda ash market will be stable in the short term.