Recent price trend of BDO raw materials methanol and calcium carbide

In March, the market performance was significantly affected by the energy side. The price fluctuation of crude oil and natural gas caused by geographical conflict became the mainstream direction of market operation. The price of crude oil stood at the 100 yuan mark for the third time. The collective strength of chemical products was driven by crude oil. The medium and long-term trading price of coal was mainly guided by the long-term association, the price restrictions of chemical coal were relaxed, and the rapid rise of methanol price in the mainland triggered the pursuit of rising sentiment of the industry. After the Winter Olympic Games, The traditional downstream has officially entered the stock preparation, and the market trading is in good condition. Since the middle of this month, the methanol market has entered a wide range of shocks. With the cooling down of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the high crude oil price has dropped, the impact of energy side fluctuations on the market has gradually flattened, and the price operation began to pay attention to the fundamentals. The spring inspection of some units began in mid March, and the periodic shutdown of units in Shanxi affected by environmental protection tightened the supply. An important meeting was held in the month, the environmental protection control in the North was tightened, the epidemic control gradually warmed up this month, the logistics and transportation were difficult, the oil price was still at a high position, and the freight cost remained high. After the replenishment operation of downstream enterprises, the inventory level has increased, and the performance of receiving goods has declined step by step. This month, the olefin end of the integrated unit was shut down, the export of methanol was reduced, and the downstream of the local refinery was mostly reduced by logistics and epidemic control, The overall start-up performance of methanol downstream was general, and the negotiation atmosphere in the mainland market weakened in the later part of the month. In terms of ports, from the perspective of spot fundamentals, the port inventory is rising slightly this month, but the absolute value is at a low level in recent years. In the first half of the month, it mainly follows the operation of crude oil and methanol futures. The inventory is low and the mentality of those who have goods is stable. Later this month, the epidemic prevention and control in many places in East China was stepped up, and it was more difficult to pick up the goods in the main reservoir areas. Although the import volume to the port rebounded and the port inventory accumulated continuously, the tradable goods source in some reservoir areas was still tight, and the overall price performance remained strong.

In the future, in April, the supply side continued to tighten, the spring inspection plan is still advancing, and the spring inspection device in April may be more than that in March. It is estimated that the import volume in March is around 900000 tons. Considering the unloading speed, some ships may be transferred to April. Under the background of poor delivery recently, it is difficult to avoid the accumulation of warehouses in the port. The continued pressure on the profits of some MTO units in East China also needs to worry about the possibility of reducing the burden. The traditional downstream also has a certain maintenance plan in April. On the whole, there is still a stalemate in the balance of supply and demand. We are concerned about the positive support brought by the continuous negative reduction of petrochemical on the olefin supply side. Although the fluctuation of crude oil is gradually flattened, there is still room for the recovery of the valuation of olefins and downstream products. If the comprehensive profit of MTO can be repaired in April, the concern of parking due to profit pressure will also dissipate. To sum up, we expect methanol prices to remain volatile in the current range, and there is little room for decline under the background of spring inspection.  

In March, the domestic calcium carbide market price showed a trend of first rising and then restraining. The supply and demand side and logistics and transportation had a significant impact on the calcium carbide price in the month. From the perspective of the market in the middle and early days of March, due to the high international crude oil futures price and the rising futures price in the PVC market downstream of calcium carbide, the spot market price has increased slightly, the enthusiasm of PVC enterprises to start the installation has increased, and the demand for raw calcium carbide has also increased significantly. In terms of calcium carbide supply, due to the maintenance of individual enterprises in Inner Mongolia, the supply has been tightened, and the rain and snow weather in Northwest China has affected the logistics and transportation, As a result, the phenomenon of insufficient arrival in the downstream has appeared, which has further stimulated the rise of calcium carbide price. However, due to the continuous rise of calcium carbide price, the upside down phenomenon of trade supply and the gradual increase of resistance of downstream PVC to high priced raw materials, the rise of calcium carbide market finally came to an abrupt end around the middle and late ten days. With the outbreak of epidemic in many places in China, logistics and transportation have been seriously frustrated, transportation drivers are difficult to find and transportation costs have increased significantly, The inventory of calcium carbide enterprises began to increase continuously, superimposed on the shock consolidation and operation of crude oil futures, the overall demand of PVC market was poor, and the demand of production enterprises for high-priced raw materials fell. Therefore, under the constraints of various bad factors, the market price of calcium carbide entered a downward consolidation trend in late March, but the decline was relatively limited due to the support of raw material blue carbon cost.

On the whole, the downstream PVC enterprises ushered in the traditional Spring Festival maintenance period in April, and the demand for raw calcium carbide may be further weakened. Superimposed on the existing resistance of road transportation, the inventory pressure of calcium carbide enterprises may still be high. Therefore, it is temporarily expected that the overall price trend of domestic calcium carbide Market in April may show a downward trend, but the decline and decline may be limited under the support of cost.