Pu: polyurethane raw material behind the sharp rise and deep fall

In 2021, the development of domestic polyurethane industry chain was steadily promoted, and the raw material supply continued to develop towards "high-end and differentiation". Domestic polyurethane raw material enterprises actively expanded production and built new projects. In addition, "carbon neutralization" also leads the development nerve of the industrial chain. Low carbon and green new building materials have become a hot topic in the market. Specifically, in terms of polyurethane raw material supply, affected by the extreme weather abroad at the beginning of the year, the supply and demand of most products were unbalanced, and the price was high. At the end of the year, with the increase of new production capacity, it experienced a deep decline. In addition, more attention is paid to the prominent shortage of chip supply in the downstream automobile industry, which will affect the overall automobile production and sales, and then affect the demand for foaming raw materials. In addition, under the normalization of the overseas epidemic in 2021, the sea freight continued to rise, especially from August to September. The rising sea freight had a certain impact on the export of raw materials and terminal products.

From the perspective of price trend, the overall rise of non foaming polyurethane raw materials in 2021 was obvious, especially BDO and DMF, which increased by more than 100% during the year, while the prices of foaming raw materials, especially Po and polyether, fell sharply in the fourth quarter due to the increase of supply and poor terminal prosperity.

In terms of BDO, BDO in 2021 has stepped out of the "step of refusing to recognize six relatives". The overall control of the domestic epidemic is good. Under this background, BDO bucked the trend, the price broke through the 30000 mark, pushed up to the highest point in recent 10 years, and the profit also increased more than ten times. Since the second half of 2020, the downstream PTMEG and spandex industrial chain of BDO have been very popular, which also makes its consumption of BDO high for a long time. After experiencing the long-term low load in the first half of the year, the order delivery capacity of BDO factory in the second half of the year is weak, and always maintains the order state in the early delivery stage. This is also the background factor for the rise of BDO price since the end of the year, and the supply of goods on site is relatively tight. Since then, PTMEG, the main downstream of BDO, has maintained high load operation. PBT, GBL and other export dependent industries also have capacity release. Under the tight supply, the price has risen strongly. As of December 31, the ex warehouse price of barreled goods in East China was 30400-30600 yuan / ton.

In terms of DMF, due to the shutdown of Jiangshan chemical plant in Zhejiang in 2020 and the improvement of supply and demand pattern in the domestic DMF market, in 2021, with the stable recovery of domestic and foreign market demand without new production capacity, the DMF market presents a weak balance between supply and demand, and the situation of periodic supply exceeding demand occurs frequently, resulting in rising prices and soaring profitability. By the end of December, the market price in Jiangsu had been accepted and delivered with reference to about 16400 yuan / ton, up 8550 yuan / ton or 108.9% compared with the same period last year. Overall, 2021 has become the strongest year in the history of DMF, with sales prices and industry profits reaching record highs.

Adipic acid also soared. Driven by the rise in cost, the overall price focus of China's adipic acid market rebounded to a high in recent three years in 2021. During the year, the production capacity of Hualu Hengsheng phase II was increased by 200000 t / A, and the long-term shutdown units of Shandong Hongding and Haili Dafeng were restarted, with obvious supply increment; The growth rate of downstream demand slows down, the pressure of market surplus is still large, and most enterprises actively explore exports. In the fourth quarter, although the demand side is still slowing down, under the constraints of dual control of energy consumption, coupled with the increase in the rise of crude oil, a new round of rise in downstream commodities has emerged, the adipic acid market has set sail again, the price has reached a new high in the year, and the profit level of the industry has increased significantly compared with last year.

However, the prices of cyclopropane and polyether led by cyclopropane experienced a deep decline at the end of the year. First of all, the overall performance of the domestic propylene oxide Market in 2021 is good. Although the price gap between the end of the year and the beginning of the year is large, mainly because the market experienced two deep declines in the fourth quarter, the market performance during the year, especially in the first three quarters, is bright. Taking Shandong as an example, the ex factory price of Po cash is 10650-19500 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the year, the market undertook the rising market at the end of last year, and finally reached the peak in mid March, with the price reaching the high point of 19500 yuan / ton. On the one hand, this round of rise is the follow-up effect of the domestic Spring Festival holiday. On the other hand, the extreme cold wave in the United States in February led to the force majeure shutdown of Po and polyether devices, and the sharp increase in domestic polyether exports led to the consumption of Po. Therefore, although the domestic cyclopropane supply increased in the second quarter, the domestic and foreign markets of the main downstream polyether and propylene glycol were good, so the overall market atmosphere was good. In the second half of the year, the market fluctuated relatively frequently, and there were many small markets. The market was mostly in the rebalancing adjustment period of supply and demand after the increase of production capacity. In terms of supply, in July and August, the load reduction of some units caused by rainstorm, typhoon and other weather reasons, as well as the routine maintenance in September and October and the parking under "dual control of energy consumption" are phased tightening of supply; Similarly, from July to September, due to the epidemic situation and high sea freight and other factors on the demand side, the export orders of polyether were poor. In addition, the dual control of energy consumption was also fermented in the downstream polyether market, and affected the terminal sponge enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and South China, which once led to the decline of Po digestion. Under the game of supply and demand, it is finally reflected in the ups and downs of prices. The terminal market is generally sluggish in the middle and lower ten days, and the overall deviation of the domestic furniture market is obvious in the middle and lower ten days. At the end of the year, Wanhua phase II of the supply side was put into operation, and the 300000 ton unit of Ningbo Hai'an phase II was put into operation at the beginning of the new year. The release of new capacity was concentrated. Under the two-way bad situation of supply and demand, huanc ended with a decline in price.

In terms of polyether, the domestic soft foam polyether market fell after the high shock in 2021. Affected by the continuous recovery of domestic economy and the strong rise of peripheral crude oil, the overall performance of the market during the year was ok, but it fell significantly in the fourth quarter. At the beginning of the year, supported by the cost side, the domestic polyether market weakened after a high shock. In the second quarter, many negative factors led to the downward trend of the market. In the off-season of the terminal industry, the high price bearish mentality and lack of follow-up power. The overseas demand epidemic affected the increase of shipping costs, the export gradually reduced, the domestic new devices were in large quantities, the oversupply situation was more obvious, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the overall market increased, showing a downward trend. With the market entering the second half of the year, the epidemic situation in some parts of China was counterattacked, and some propylene oxide units at the raw material end were overhauled intensively, which led to the rise of the market on the cost side. However, the domestic terminal demand is cautious to wait for the opportunity to replenish the warehouse. In terms of export, due to the hot international container liner market, it is difficult to find one cabin and one container, the freight rate continues to rise, the enthusiasm of orders is poor, and the overall demand power is insufficient. The "golden nine silver ten" polyether market is not prosperous in the peak season, the price is low in the South and high in the north, and the overall shipment is weak. In the fourth quarter, the polyether market fell sharply, and the price fell again and again, ending with a deep decline at the end of the year.