Propylene oxide: cost pressure highlights the price rise at the beginning of the month

In February, the overall operation range of the domestic propylene oxide market was higher than that in January. Although the end foam users returned to work slowly during the month, the downward transmission of Po was not smooth, and the market paid more attention to the news of new capacity launch after the middle and late ten days, so the trend of Po was quite cautious. However, the overall start-up load of the northern huanc unit at the supply side is not high, which once fell to 81% in the first ten days. At the same time, the first phase maintenance expectation of Ningbo Hai'an in East China also gives some support to the market. In particular, the profit squeeze was obvious due to the wide rise of cost at the end of the month. Therefore, the supplier's price support mentality is clear, and the market is mostly in a stalemate state.

At the beginning of March, the central C market broke the deadlock and rose. As of March 5, Shandong had increased by 700 yuan / ton. On the 2nd, the market atmosphere became stronger. Due to the risk of international crude oil supply shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international crude oil continued to rise and break through the high level. The strong cost support role promoted the operation of the petrochemical market. Propylene and downstream derivatives rose to varying degrees. Propylene production enterprises had a strong willingness to support prices, and the trading range rose rapidly. On the 2nd, Shandong propylene increased by 300 yuan / ton in a single day; At the same time, the price of liquid chlorine also continued to rise, with a single day increase of 200 yuan / ton. The cost of chlorohydrin method increased rapidly and the cost pressure was prominent; In addition, Ningbo Hai'an phase I plant has entered a half month maintenance period; At the same time, the rise in the price of downstream polyether has greatly driven the market sentiment. Some polyether factories did not report the closure, and then some downstream increased purchase Po led to the improvement of market transactions and the rise of prices.

At present, with the new single shrinkage of downstream polyether, Po continues to rise, but the short-term market is still supported. Propylene prices are slightly weak after peaking, short-term international crude oil remains at a high level and plays a role in underpinning the bottom, and there is little room for propylene prices to fall; Liquid chlorine is expected to decline slightly. After the cost is reduced, the pressure is reduced, but it is still hovering at the edge of loss; On the supply side, Ningbo Hai'an phase I plant is in the maintenance period, and the load of Shandong plant is not high. At present, the operating rate of domestic Po plant is only 79%. From the perspective of Po cost and supply support, the market is mainly temporarily consolidated, which will weaken and move down after the middle of the month.