Propylene: how supply and demand changes in December

Propylene: how supply and demand changes in December

Entering the end of 2022, the domestic propylene market will reverse and rise. Supported by the positive support of the maintenance plan for multiple sets of propylene units, downstream manufacturers are actively entering the market to replenish their warehouses.

From the perspective of recent market performance, the launch of some new downstream production capacity in November drove the demand for raw material propylene. In the middle and late months of the month, affected by the maintenance plans of propylene equipment such as Luxi, Yatong, Jingbo, Jinneng, etc., the circulation of propylene in the field decreased. However, the supply of goods in the surrounding areas is insufficient to supplement Shandong, and the superimposed volume of imported cargoes is too small to form multiple positive supports. However, it should be noted that after the price of propylene continues to rise, the loss of main downstream polypropylene powder has intensified, the high price is under pressure, and the shipment is not smooth. The downstream of other chemical industries are relatively profitable, but they are cautious about accepting high-priced raw materials, and the overall buying atmosphere has declined.

Looking at it in December, after the overhaul of the Jinneng PDH unit was implemented, the supply of propylene in the field remained tight for the time being, but the profit margin of downstream derivatives narrowed, and the lack of motivation to continue to chase high will restrict the operating space of the propylene market. During the same period, we need to pay attention to the new production capacity of PO. After the propylene units that have been overhauled in the middle and late months of the month are restored one after another, the tight supply situation in the market will improve.

In summary, the positive supply side will continue to support the propylene operating range, but under the influence of the shrinking downstream profits and demand reduction, the propylene market continues to have limited room to push up. Therefore, Zhongyu believes that the short-term propylene market will maintain a high and volatile operation, and there is a risk of a fall in the medium and long-term market, but the overall market operation in December is relatively strong.