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Phenol: There is no bright spot in supply and demand, and the market is declining

Views: 0     Author: Site Editor     Publish Time: 2022-10-31      Origin: Site

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Phenol: There is no bright spot in supply and demand, and the market is declining


Recently, the domestic phenol market has shown a declining trend. As of the end of October, the trading focus of the East China port market has hovered around the 10,000 yuan mark. Although it was previously supported by the low pressure on spot supply at the end of the month and the high average contract price, the market fluctuated slightly and repeatedly. Downstream and terminal demand procurement is difficult to sustain. With the end of the terminal factory replenishment, the pace of entry into the market has slowed down, and the shipment of stockholders has been hindered, and the market has entered a downward trend at the end of the month.


From the perspective of cost, crude oil has a short-term upward space, but the space is limited, and there is still support for pure benzene, but the current operating rate of downstream industries may decline, and the demand for pure benzene has weakened slightly, and the subsequent domestic pure benzene market may fluctuate weakly as Mainly, the propylene market, another raw material, is hardly optimistic. From the perspective of November, the propylene supply side is expected to be intertwined with long and short positions, and the demand side is expected to be relatively weak. The main downstream polypropylene is entering the off-season of consumption, while some downstream chemical industries may put new production capacity. The market supply and demand structure may improve. Therefore, Zhongyu predicts that the propylene market may fluctuate in a range in November. Overall, it is difficult to find effective and favorable support for the phenol and ketone raw material end in the short term.


The supply and demand side is still a hot spot in the market. Recently, the domestic phenol and ketone enterprises have stabilized at the level of around 85%. Taihua has an overhaul plan at the end of the month. It is expected that the subsequent operating rate will decline. Affected by the arrival of supplementary goods, the inventory of phenol at Jiangyin Port in China rose to 22,000 tons. The overall supply side of phenol has not yet been under great pressure. However, the market expects that a new plant will be put into operation by the end of the year, and the long-term supply side is expected to be under pressure from the market mentality. With the recent weakening of the market, the downstream is mostly based on staged purchases, and the buying interest of the terminal demand has slowed down. It is difficult for the demand for bisphenol A to be sustainable, and the downstream consumes more contracts. The phenolic resin market is also running weakly, and there is no bright spot on the supply and demand side.


On the whole, the overall changes in the fundamentals are limited. Downstream companies mainly purchase more for just needs, and the demand side purchases are insufficient. The overall spot supply pressure is not large, but the shipment of the goods holders is hindered, and it is difficult to form a heavy volume support for market transactions. The phenol market is still expected to weaken, and we will pay attention to the follow-up support for the purchase of new bisphenol A units.


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