PVC: good and bad intertwined, weak finishing of PVC market

In terms of cost, the overall market price of domestic calcium carbide is rising steadily. The supply of main production areas in Northwest China is OK, the delivery of production enterprises is smooth, and the inventory is low. However, due to the recent maintenance of some downstream PVC devices, the demand for raw calcium carbide has declined, so the shortage of calcium carbide supply in the early stage has been significantly alleviated; The raw material blue carbon showed a slight rise in the week, resulting in a slight increase in the production cost of calcium carbide; Therefore, on the whole, although the demand of calcium carbide market has declined this week, the cost side has increased slightly, which leads to the slight rise of calcium carbide in the near future

Fundamentals: Recently, the market price of PVC has shown a trend of shock and decline. Some manufacturers have completed the maintenance and normal production this week, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. At the end of this month, some manufacturers plan to start the maintenance, and the market supply has been tightened, but it has little impact on the market. Due to the lower external price of ethylene PVC, it is expected to maintain a stable and weak market in the short term. Due to the existence of the sentiment of buying up and not buying down in the market, the industry will wait and see and purchase carefully; Although the epidemic situation has improved significantly, the overall operation of downstream manufacturers is still not high, coupled with the regional limited impact of transportation, the overall demand of the terminal has little change in the short term, the downstream still needs a small amount of procurement, and the recovery of the demand side is still weak, which is also significantly weaker than that in the same period of previous years.

On the whole, the number of downstream maintenance manufacturers increased one after another at the end of the month, which may drive the rise of PVC market price. Domestic demand may gradually increase with the improvement of the epidemic situation, but the downstream recovery is still lower than expected. Therefore, supported by the high level of raw calcium carbide, it is expected that the PVC market price will be mainly sorted out in the short term, or accompanied by a narrow reduction.