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PTA: unstable cost support, market oscillation

Views: 0     Author: Site Editor     Publish Time: 2022-09-07      Origin: Site

PTA: unstable cost support, market oscillation

 As of August 31, PTA spot market prices on the first day of the month rose only 45 yuan / ton, or +0.74%. As can be seen, the overall PTA market oscillated during the month. However, the up and down space is limited, and the market is fierce between long and short games.

From the cost side, this month, crude oil prices rose and fell, the overall fluctuation frequency is faster. On the one hand, the market is concerned about the recession inhibiting oil market demand, the rapid rebound of the Asian epidemic, the Iran nuclear deal negotiations back on the horizon, the prospect of a big Fed rate hike pressured risk assets, crude oil in Europe and the United States plunged; on the other hand, the United States employment data improved to support the demand outlook, China's crude oil imports rebounded in July, EIA crude oil inventories fell, OPEC + possible production cuts, the conflict in Libya will help offset the stronger dollar and The outlook for economic growth in Europe and the United States was weakly affected, and the cost side of crude oil rose and fell during the month to support the PTA market was limited. From the raw material PX, the Asian PX market as a whole shaken down during the month. Although the supply of PX is still relatively tight, but downstream demand is more downward trend, PX market supply exceeds demand. August PX to PTA average cost of 5986 yuan / ton, theoretical costs fell 249 yuan / ton compared with July, indicating that the overall support of the cost side is more general.截屏2022-09-11 20.25.24

From the supply point of view, in August PTA unit unexpected maintenance load shedding continued to increase. During the Zhuhai BP2 # 1.25 million tons, Hengli 3 # 2.2 million tons, Tongkun 1 # 1.5 million tons, Sichuan can invest 100 tons. 10,000 tons and billion grand company 1 # 2.25 million tons unit overhaul; new Hengli 5 # 2.5 million tons unit and Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons unit; new Fujian Baihong 2.5 million tons unit; new Yadong Petrochemical 750,000 tons, Yisheng new material 1 # 2 # 7.2 million tons, Yisheng Hainan 2 million tons of equipment reduction; the month involved in the maintenance of load shedding capacity continues to increase significantly, the cumulative total of 31.7 million tons, the overall start more than low. However, PTA full month to inventory rate has increased, there is still some support for the market.

From the point of view of downstream demand, polyester start rate mostly maintained at about 81%, and with the commissioning of new polyester short-line devices, the overall start rate has improved, PTA demand is improving. The market trading atmosphere has improved, the previous terminal power restriction policy and the epidemic affected the demand is weak. However, the policy was relaxed at the end of the month, polyester demand has mostly improved. Textile enterprises are more active in stockpiling, and PTA's liquidity to the downstream has improved.

Comprehensive analysis, the overall support of the cost side is still unstable, PTA processing fee repair obvious. But PTA own inventory has been consumed, supply is mostly at a low level, downstream demand is mostly maintained, and terminal conduction has slightly improved. PTA market is expected to rise slightly in the short term or. Oscillation strong, but need to pay attention to the international oil price trend, PTA device changes and downstream demand.

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