PTA: Multiple bearish positions appear, and the market price falls sharply

PTA: Multiple bearish positions appear, and the market price falls sharply

Since entering December, due to the sharp drop in cost-end crude oil and the weak operation of raw material PX, PTA’s own fundamentals are unspeakably optimistic, and the overall spot price of PTA in the East China market has fallen sharply. Nearly 5,000 yuan/ton fell to around 5,000 yuan/ton, and the overall drop was around 500 yuan/ton, with a sharp drop of -8.62%. Let's make a detailed analysis of the main factors that have caused the price of PTA to plummet in the near future:

     1. The cost has dropped sharply, and the support for the PTA market is not good

From the cost point of view, although more cities in major Asian countries have relaxed the new crown restrictions on weekends since the beginning of December, which has brought positive signals to fuel demand, the Western price limit on Russian oil and the ban on seaborne oil have come into effect. Radical interest rate hike expectations have dampened risk appetite, and the EIA has lowered oil price expectations. International oil prices have plummeted by around 8.6%, and the support for the chemical market has weakened. From the perspective of direct raw material PX, with the commissioning of 2 million tons/year of Shenghong, the overall PX supply has increased, and Weilian Chemical’s 1 million tons/year new plant has been put into operation on November 29, and the output of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant has increased To 800,000 tons/year in the first ten days of December, the material will be restarted soon. After the overall PX spot tightness has eased, the Asian PX CFR China Taiwan/Mainland price has continued to drop, falling from US$926.33/ton at the beginning of the month to US$894/ton on the 6th. -3.49%, resulting in the theoretical cost of PTA falling from around 5,000 yuan/ton to 4,700 yuan/ton, which shows that the overall support of the cost side is not good in the short term.

2. Weakness in supply and demand is hard to change, which continues to drag down market sentiment

From the perspective of supply and demand, Yadong Petrochemical 750,000 tons, Zhuhai BP 1# 1.1 million tons and Yisheng Dalian 1# 2.25 million tons were shut down for maintenance, Yisheng Dalian 2# 3.75 million tons, Zhuhai BP 2# 1.25 million tons Increased load, Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons, Baihong 2.5 million tons reduced load operation, Yangzi Petrochemical 2# 650,000 tons plant stopped for a long time, Yizheng Chemical Fiber 1# 350,000 tons plant restarted, Weilian Chemical 2.5 million tons PTA new plant is still in operation During commissioning, the commissioning of Tongkun Jiatong's new 2.5 million-ton plant was delayed, and the overall PTA start-up was adjusted to a low level near 66%, which supported the market. However, the downstream polyester inventory is still high. With the cost side falling, the profit loss has improved. However, terminal weaving shutdowns have increased, and the overall order situation is sluggish. Most downstream users are currently mainly returning funds, with only a small number of winter orders and In the spring of the first year, loose orders and small orders were supported, and the negative feedback transmission had a greater impact, resulting in the current decline of polyester production to around 72.83%, and the demand side of PTA is relatively negative.

From the perspective of market outlook, crude oil at the cost side is relatively short, and the raw material PX market has moved down with the mass production of new devices, which has insufficient support for PTA. PTA’s own fundamentals are still expected to weaken, and the short-term PTA market may be weak and volatile. . It is necessary to pay attention to the trend of international oil prices, the maintenance of PTA equipment and the downstream demand.