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Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2023-01-03 Origin: Site
PTA: Morning Market Forecast
| product | Brief Analysis of Polyester Industry Chain Market | price | Trend Forecast |
| PX | Yesterday, the Asian PX market was closed for the New Year holiday, and the Asian PX market was closed. | 940-950 | ↗ |
| cost:On the cost side, Russia launched a large-scale air strike, and the net import of crude oil in the United States increased. On December 30, the international oil price closed up on the outside market. WTI in February: 80.26 up 1.86 or 2.37%; Brent changed to March: 85.91 up 2.45 or 2.93%. | |||
| supply and demand:The short-term downstream PTA futures rose slightly, PTA started to maintain a low level, the demand for PX was average, the terminal demand was weak due to the impact of the epidemic, and the negative feedback transmission affected the poor circulation of PX; the supply of PX was tightened and the market was insufficient. | |||
| predict:It is expected that today's PX market may be adjusted strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to the trend of the upstream and downstream markets and the commissioning of new PX devices. | |||
| PTA | Last Friday, the PTA spot market rose in a narrow range, and the market price widened slightly. The negotiated price in the PTA spot market was around 5540-5610 yuan/ton. PTA: TA2305 rose 60 yuan/ton to 5540 yuan/ton in the afternoon, opened at 5486 yuan/ton, the highest was 5556 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 5442 yuan/ton. | 5500-5650 | ↗ |
| cost:From the perspective of cost, Russia launched a large-scale air strike, and the net import of crude oil in the United States increased. On December 30, the international oil price closed up on the external disk time. WTI in February: 80.26 up 1.86 or 2.37%; Brent changed to March: 85.91 up 2.45 or 2.93%, which has strong support for the chemical market. The raw material PX is greatly affected by the cost side in the short term, and the market price rose slightly last Friday. | |||
| supply and demand:From the perspective of PTA's own supply and demand, there are more short-term equipment maintenance and load reduction, and the overall start-up has changed to a low level, and the supply is relatively tight in the short term. Downstream polyester demand weakens, terminals are mostly closed for holidays, and PTA supply and demand are weak | |||
| predict:Under the support of the cost side, the PTA market is expected to be volatile today. It is necessary to pay attention to the trend of international oil prices, the maintenance of PTA equipment and whether the downstream demand can improve. | |||
| Ethylene glycol | Last Friday, the overall center of gravity of the market moved up in a narrow range, the buying follow-up was not good, the actual transaction was light, and the closing price in the East China market was around 4050 yuan/ton. | 4040-4050 | → |
| raw material:Russia launched a large-scale air strike, and the net import of crude oil in the United States increased. The international oil price closed up on December 30, external time. WTI in February: 80.26 up 1.86 or 2.37%; Brent changed to March: 85.91 up 2.45 or 2.93%. | |||
| supply:Recently, the level of port shipments has been low, relatively few cargoes have arrived in the port during the week, and the inventory has been reduced within a narrow range. However, the increase in domestic production is clear, and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. | |||
| need:Near the end of the year, the downstream maintains just-needed purchases, terminal weaving factories are not motivated to stock up, polyester production and sales continue to be sluggish, factory starts continue to decline, and the demand side lacks favorable support. | |||
| predict:On the whole, the contradiction between supply and demand in the ethylene glycol market is still sharp, and it is difficult for the demand to improve significantly in the short term. It is expected that the market will maintain a low and volatile operation. In the later period, we will continue to pay attention to changes in port inventory and downstream demand. | |||
| diethylene glycol | Last Friday, the market maintained a range order, the market fluctuations were limited, and the overall atmosphere was normal. The closing price of the East China market was around 5,450 yuan/ton. | 5440-5450 | → |
| raw material:Russia launched a large-scale air strike, and the net import of crude oil in the United States increased. The international oil price closed up on December 30, external time. WTI in February: 80.26 up 1.86 or 2.37%; Brent changed to March: 85.91 up 2.45 or 2.93%. | |||
| supply:Recently, there are few shipments arriving in Hong Kong, and the inventory remains low. At the same time, domestic production has not changed much, and the supply side has given the bottom support to the market. | |||
| need:Near the end of the year, downstream factories are parked for holidays, and most of them maintain just-needed purchases. There is no centralized stocking plan, and the demand side drags down market sentiment. | |||
| predict:On the whole, it is expected that the diethylene glycol market will lack upward momentum in the short term, and will maintain a range-bound operation, and will continue to pay attention to changes in port inventories in the later period. | |||
| polyester filament | Last Friday, the quotations of mainstream polyester filament manufacturers were stable, the market transaction center was strong, and the overall trading atmosphere was weak. As of last Friday around 15:30 pm, the average production and sales of polyester filaments were estimated at 22%, which was a decrease from the previous Thursday. 10%. | 7100-7200 | → |
| cost:Crude oil futures in Europe and the United States closed up last Friday, raw material PTA futures rose slightly, and the center of gravity of another major raw material, ethylene glycol, moved up. The theoretical polymerization cost was calculated at 6141 yuan/ton last Friday, up 22% from last Thursday. Around RMB/ton, the polymerization cost fluctuates strongly, and the support for the polyester filament market still exists. | |||
| supply and demand:The demand for terminals is sluggish near the Spring Festival, and the impact of the epidemic is superimposed. Most factories are closed during the holidays, and they are not in a good mood for polyester replenishment | |||
| predict:It is expected that today's polyester market will consolidate slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in cost and terminal demand. | |||
| Polyester staple fiber | Last Friday, the quotations of polyester staple fiber factories were basically stable, the market consolidated slightly, and the overall buying momentum was relatively sluggish. As of around 15:30 p.m. %. | 7000-7200 | → |
| cost:Crude oil futures in Europe and the United States closed up last Friday, the spot price of raw material PTA rose slightly, and the center of gravity of another major raw material, ethylene glycol, moved up. The theoretical polymerization cost was calculated at 6141 yuan/ton last Friday, which was 22% higher than that of last Thursday. Around RMB/ton, the polymerization cost fluctuates strongly, and there is still support for the polyester staple market. | |||
| supply and demand:There are many short-term parking holidays in terminals, and the demand for polyester staple is not good | |||
| predict:It is expected that the polyester staple market may consolidate within a narrow range today. Need to pay attention to changes in cost and downstream demand |
