Glycol: Supply pressure increases gradually

In January, supported by the cost side and the supply side, ethylene glycol market price center moved up, but in the long-term supply pressure and weak demand situation, the market rebound space is limited, there are signs of decline.

On the supply side, due to the maintenance of several domestic devices recently, the overall starting load dropped to about 53%, and the supply was lower than expected. At present, the 800,000 tons/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhenhai refining and chemical industry has produced qualified products last weekend, and the 200,000 tons/year ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi Huayi Has produced industrial products. Sinochem Quanzhou and Ningbo Fude, which stopped for maintenance in the early stage, plan to restart operation in the latter part of this month. With the restart of the device, the supply pressure will gradually rise. In addition, the pace of port inventory is slowing down. As of today, the inventory of east China's main port is 663,600 tons, 39,400 tons less than that of the previous statistical period.

In terms of demand, supported by strong crude oil, the overall focus of polyester market has been moving up last week. The market trading atmosphere is light, the terminal load is low, the enthusiasm for stockpiling is not high, and the resistance to high prices is heating up. Although the start of polyester production has increased slightly recently, but approaching the Spring Festival holiday, polyester and terminal weaving enterprises will stop production and have more holidays in the latter half of the year, and downstream factories will start up pressure later, which is likely to decline.

Taken together, although recent glycol market prices higher, but these technologies are now losing money, ethylene glycol so easy to follow the raw material price fluctuations, as the rapid growth of the price rebound the active drilling data, the crude oil geopolitical premium is being pushed, completely ignored the dense gram si market results in the negative impact of the current epidemic, Short-term speculative operations will continue to support the upside, glycol cost side still has support. However, in the medium and long term, with the gradual restart of early-stage parking devices and the commissioning of new production capacity, the domestic start-up load will be increased, and the downstream demand continues to be weak. It is expected that the glycol market may still fall in the early Spring Festival, but the space is limited.