Food and industrial ethanol: production hits record high in December, may see decline in January

Food and industrial ethanol: production hits record high in December, may see decline in January

[Introduction] China's edible and industrial ethanol production reached 636,000 tonnes in December 2022, the highest monthly output since records began. Despite profits showing a decline and incremental feedstock supply, ethanol companies were more active in production in December. the Chinese New Year will be celebrated in January and a small number of installations will have brief downtime arrangements and monthly production may decline.

Since the fourth quarter, new supplies of raw materials have gradually come onto the market and domestic ethanol companies have become more active in production, with China's edible and industrial ethanol production reaching 636,000 tonnes in December, a record high. However, the supply of different varieties diverged, with grain ethanol production falling in December and all other varieties of ethanol production increasing.

Grain ethanol began the month with tight feedstock and a large loss of supply in the first half of the month

In the edible and industrial ethanol sector, grain ethanol production was around 460,000 tonnes in December, down 3% from November. Despite the concentration of raw material corn into the volume period, ethanol plants still encountered raw material tension in late November to early December, the main corn ethanol producing areas in the northeast main ethanol plants to reduce production is more obvious, according to Zhuo Chuan information statistics, the effective daily starting load in early December once dropped to 56%, into January effective daily starting load restored to 78%. Grain ethanol production has fallen, which also has some support for ethanol prices. And superimposed on the elimination of downstream concentrated replenishment in mid to late December, Henan and some regions in the northeast corn ethanol orders increased, ethanol spot tension led to price increases of more than 5% in most regions.

Cassava ethanol profits increased December production enthusiasm is high

In the edible and industrial ethanol sector, cassava ethanol production was 158,800 tonnes in December, up 36% from November. Dried cassava, the raw material, entered the new market period, and cassava ethanol profits were still available, so companies were more active in production. According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, the monthly average gross profit of cassava ethanol in northern Jiangsu Province in December was RMB 410.34 per tonne, an increase of 1,488% compared to November, and the highest daily gross profit of production in December reached RMB 863.95 per tonne. Although cassava ethanol production increased, but also ushered in increased demand, on the one hand from corn ethanol price increases on cassava ethanol also driven, on the other hand some downstream in mid to late December replenishment, cassava ethanol prices in the middle of the month also had a round of concentrated price increases.

Molasses ethanol feedstock enters season Synthetic ethanol production increases slightly

Sugar cane, the raw material for molasses ethanol, also entered the harvesting period, and molasses ethanol companies rarely produced in a profitable state during the year. In December, the average monthly gross profit for molasses ethanol in Guangxi was 450 yuan per tonne. synthetic ethanol production also increased slightly in December, although the industry had more long-term shutdowns, but most processes were in a profitable state of production and production improved slightly.

January may welcome a fall in supply and demand

Late January ushered in the Chinese New Year, some domestic ethanol plant shutdown arrangements for the customary Chinese New Year, southern Jiangsu, Henan and South China, Southwest and other places ethanol production will usher in a significant decline. And January is also expected to decline in downstream demand, part of the small downstream of this year's Spring Festival in advance of the shutdown arrangements, the elimination of demand in December after the release of the current inventory digestion period, liquor downstream in December has mostly completed the stockpile. Overall, January domestic ethanol prices down trend is dominant, but due to the current inventory is less, and with some buyers before the holiday replenishment is completed, prices or in the middle of the decline slowed down.