Ethylene: how to interpret ethylene under the strong boost of cost

As European and American countries began to restrict oil imports to Russia, no one paid attention to Russian crude oil in the spot market, and the interruption of oil supply has indeed occurred. The market continues to price risks, and European and American crude oil futures continue to break upward. The WTI of China US crude oil rose above US $115 / barrel, a record high since August 2008, and Brent crude oil once stood at US $118 / barrel, The highest level since February 2013. At present, the rise in oil prices is strong, there is great uncertainty in the international situation, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will not ease in the short term, and the geopolitical conflict will still exist.

So far, affected by the Russian Ukrainian war, the Asian market closed up 118.25 US dollars / ton to 1055.625 US dollars / ton. The price of naphtha in Japan is US $1056 / T CFR Japan, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is US $1250 / T CFR in the same period, and the ethylene Japan naphtha oil price difference is US $194 / T, lower than the average value of US $378 / T in recent two years, down US $157 / T compared with the same period last week, and the naphtha ethylene price difference continues to narrow.

Ethylene rose slightly. Although the prices of crude oil and naphtha were in a rising trend, in terms of the rising trend this week, it only rose slightly by $20 / ton on the basis of $1230 / ton on Monday. At present, the closing price is $1250 / ton, up 1.63% from the previous trading day. The related product ethylene glycol has soared on the cost side, which has brought strong support to the ethylene glycol market, and the market is expected to rebound. In terms of the main downstream demand for ethylene, under the weak demand for derivatives and the negative profits of key products, the market sentiment continues to be suppressed, and the upward power is insufficient. The high price not only leads to the conflict of terminal consumption, but also is difficult to be transmitted to the downstream of the industrial chain.

On the whole, the ethylene market is strongly supported on the cost side. However, in terms of demand, the ethylene market is struggling, and there are still expectations of rising with the cost side in the short term, but the fluctuation space is limited. In the follow-up, we will pay attention to the trend of International crude oil price, the shutdown and commencement time of plant maintenance and the balance between supply and demand in the domestic market.