Ethylene glycol: the off-season is coming, and the market rebound is weak

Since the outbreak of the domestic epidemic in April, provinces have implemented traffic control, with limited delivery and transportation. Zhangjiagang and Taicang have been strictly sealed, which has seriously affected the delivery efficiency. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the inventory at the main port in East China rose to more than one million tons in the middle of the month. Although the inventory was reduced slightly at the end of the month, the high inventory still suppresses the market. At the same time, under the influence of the epidemic, the orders in the early stage of the terminal were forced to be cancelled or delayed, the shipment was difficult, and the arrival of raw materials was poor. After the Qingming Festival, the overall start-up of the weaving factory decreased from 64% at the beginning of the month to 46%. Under the pressure of poor production and sales and high inventory, many factories shut down for maintenance. At the beginning of the month, the start-up of polyester was around 90%, while after the centralized maintenance, the start-up in the middle of the month decreased to around 79%, the start-up in the downstream decreased greatly, and the concern of the ethylene glycol, It is difficult to break through the depressed market.

After the May Day holiday, although the market rebounded driven by crude oil, there is limited room to boost. At present, the port inventory base is large, and there is no obvious trend of going to the warehouse. In June, several domestic units have maintenance plans, and the supply will be reduced to a certain extent, but the pattern of high supply is still difficult to change. Coupled with the arrival of the off-season of demand, it is expected that the ethylene glycol market will maintain the situation of weak demand and high supply in the first half of this year, It is difficult for prices to rebound significantly. In the later stage, we also need to continue to pay attention to the changes of port inventory and the recovery of demand.