Ethylene glycol: 2022 ethylene glycol events

Ethylene glycol: 2022 ethylene glycol events

I. News events: Russia-Ukraine situation disturbed the oil market, international crude oil high tremors

CU view: In March 2022, the war in Russia and Ukraine and the energy supply cut-off crisis triggered by the West's comprehensive sanctions against Russia swayed the international oil market, and crude oil futures prices pivoted violently, with prices once climbing to near $139/barrel during the day, although crude oil entered a shock period after touching near the historical extreme on account of the recurring geopolitical situation and increased liquidity risk, and continuously came out of the impulse market. Specifically, Russia took military action against Ukraine, followed by the announcement of extensive sanctions against Russia by the U.S. and its allies, the violent pull-up of crude oil was accompanied by a significant increase in the margin amount of crude oil futures by the clearing house, an increase in market transaction costs, the opening of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and the UAE once shifted its position in the external caliber calling for an increase in production, which led to oil prices once hitting the largest Single-day dollar decline, but the West's energy sanctions against Russia and the geopolitical situation again will oil prices up.

In terms of specific price data, the data monitored by CU information shows that, as of March 30, foreign time, the U.S. crude oil WTI benchmark price closed at $ 107.82/barrel, up $ 12.1/barrel or 12.64% from the end of last month; Brent benchmark price closed at $ 113.45/barrel, up $ 12.46/barrel or 12.34% from the end of last month; as of March 30, foreign time March 30, March WTI price average recorded 108.62 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 16.99 U.S. dollars / barrel than the average value of February, or 18.55%. March Brent price average recorded 112.67 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 18.57 U.S. dollars / barrel than the average value of February, or 19.73%.

II. News events: the global economic recession, the textile industry faces serious challenges

CU view: affected by the global economic recession, the Indian textile industry has felt the gust of cold wind. The impact of the economic recession on the new orders received by Indian exporters is obvious. Industry bodies and businessmen said export orders for apparel and home textiles from the U.S. and Europe have fallen by about 15-20 percent as Western retail brands face slow demand. In Panipat, an important home textile production center, there are signs that export orders have fallen by as much as 40 percent. Inflation and rising interest rates due to the Russian-Ukrainian war are said to be the cause of the recession and reduced export orders.

In the second quarter, the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the rise in oil prices and the epidemic had an impact on people's global consumption habits. The purchasing power of fashionable clothing products dropped sharply and stocks could not be sold. Brands do not sign new orders. Some factories do not have orders, forcing them to recalculate appropriate employment plans, such as taking Saturdays off and scheduling workers on vacation. Meanwhile, in addition to the sharp drop in cotton prices, prices of other raw materials and accessories for the apparel industry continue to rise due to transportation factors. Some distributors are backlogging a large amount of goods, both to solve the backlog problem and face a decline in sales. Manufacturers also have to face the difficulties of rising raw material prices against the backdrop of declining purchasing power. The textile and apparel industry is facing more challenges due to tensions in Russia and Ukraine and rising inflation making sales in the U.S. and Europe on a downward trend, with many customers postponing orders.

III. News events: overseas installations stop, glycol imports decrease

CU view: influenced by geopolitical factors, international crude oil has been dramatically increased in March this year, once rose to a high of 139 USD/barrel, the surge of cost side continuously compressed the profit of oil-based glycol production, in order to cope with the contracting cash flow, overseas devices have been stopping or reducing production since March, including a 330,000 tons/year device of Korea Lotte stopping for maintenance, followed by the device load of Dasan and Lishui. Therefore, the import of ethylene glycol this year was significantly reduced compared with the same period of previous years, the import volume in May was 551,700 tons, down 19.05% year-on-year, and the total import volume from January to September was 5,808,400 tons, down 8.11% compared with the same period of last year.

IV. News and Events: Yulin Chemical Glycol Plant Successfully Put into Operation

Viewpoint: Shanxi Coal Group's Yulin Chemical Company's 1.8 million tons/year ethylene glycol project, a single series of demonstration project of coal sub-mass utilization of new chemical materials, was successfully driven at once, and at the same time, the polyester-grade ethylene glycol products were successfully output. The project, which took three years to build, was delivered on April 28 this year and officially entered the commissioning stage. In order to ensure the one-time success of the project, Shaanxi Coal Group Yulin Chemical Company has been refining the work plan, optimizing the work flow, perfecting the coordination mechanism and strengthening the work responsibilities to promote the implementation of the feeding and start-up work, and finally achieved the one-time success of the start-up.

In early November, Yulin Chemical polyester-grade ethylene glycol glycol products officially entered the market and were sent to Zhejiang Hengyi Group Co. With Yulin Chemical glycol put into the market, the pressure on the supply side will increase, and the situation of domestic oversupply will intensify. Although there are still plans to put new devices into operation for downstream polyester, the demand growth rate is less than expected under the high raw material and the weak economic trend, and there is still a gap, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, which limits the profit repair space of glycol.

V. News events: the impact of the epidemic terminal loom starts decline

CU view: In December, the domestic epidemic prevention policy was liberalized, and the increase in the number of infections is spreading from the north to the south against the background of the rapid spread of Omicron, and the south ushered in a peak in the number of infections, which has had a direct impact on production. Workers positive problems caused by a serious shortage of arrival rate, the start of a sharp decline in the downstream bases in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, under a rough inquiry, workers Yang rate has been more than half, so production to maintain the difficulties, forced to take an early holiday or reduce the negative operation. Due to the macro environment this year, the weaving industry is relatively cautious in stockpiling, after experiencing the December stockpiling market, it is estimated that the possibility of stockpiling again on the eve of the Spring Festival is small, do not rule out a pulse type short replenishment market, but the probability will not be similar to December as the replenishment market lasts several days. With the recent increase in the number of new crown infections, downstream factories have successively because of the lack of workers to reduce the negative situation, and it is expected that this impact will expand in the future, which may lead to some of the factories originally planned to delay the holiday near New Year's Day forced to take an early holiday.