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Ethylene Oxide: Analysis of Cost and Profit in October

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Ethylene Oxide: Analysis of Cost and Profit in November

截屏2022-12-20 10.22.15

As of November 30, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US$880/ton, and the ex-factory price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,800 yuan/ton. According to the rough calculation of Zhongyu Information, the domestic production cost of ethylene oxide is about 7,300 yuan/ton. Profit - about 200 yuan / ton. As shown in the figure, the price of ethylene this month has stabilized to 880 US dollars / ton CFR Northeast Asia, and the market atmosphere of raw material ethylene is light this month.


In November 2022, the average monthly profit of domestic ethylene oxide was 191 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145% from the same period last year and a decrease of 136% from the previous month.


In November, the Asian ethylene market remained stable. The negotiating atmosphere in the ethylene market in Northeast Asia was average, closing at US$880/ton CFR Northeast Asia at the end of the month; the ethylene market in Southeast Asia was weak, closing at US$880/ton CFR Southeast Asia at the end of the month.


In November, there were few transactions in the Asian ethylene market, and the downstream market continued to be weak. Both buyers and sellers remained on the sidelines. In the case of a large price gap between buyers and sellers, the Asian ethylene market remained stable. Although the inquiry in December has increased, in view of the low supply of goods in December, the downstream profit margin is very low, and manufacturers are losing money, which reduces the purchase interest of imported ethylene. In addition, there is no room for ethylene prices to drop due to the lack of ships, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market is dominant, so the market's willingness to buy is limited. To sum up, in November, the demand in the Asian ethylene market was insufficient, and the market fluctuated within a narrow range. Northeast Asian ethylene remained stable at $880/ton within the month, and Asian ethylene prices remained stable during the month. The Asian ethylene market was still weak, and the plant operating rate was not high. Derivatives profit continued to lose money. During the month, the domestic ethylene fluctuated and went down, the market sentiment was not high, the demand performance was tepid, and the purchasing power was slightly lacking. Zhongyu expects that the short-term atmosphere of the ethylene market will be dominated by narrow-range adjustments under the mutual restraint of upstream and downstream.


In November, the center of gravity of the ethylene oxide market moved down. The mainstream price range in the domestic market was 6,750-6,800 yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene oxide in various regions was 6,750-7,000 yuan/ton. As of November 30, the domestic market price They are 6,800 yuan/ton in East China; 6,750 yuan/ton in South China; 6,800 yuan/ton in North China; 6,800 yuan/ton in Central China; 6,800 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 7,000 yuan/ton in Levima Shinco . During the month, the supply was loose, and the downstream demand was insufficient. Overall, the ethylene oxide market temporarily stabilized after falling within the month, and the focus of ethylene offers was relatively stable. The atmosphere of the ethylene oxide market is not good, weak finishing, the mentality of the main downstream market is bearish, the start-up load of the installation is low, the traditional off-season affects the on-site trading, the main demand is to receive goods, and the consumption of the terminal infrastructure industry is obviously insufficient. Alkane's boost is limited. Zhongyu expects that the domestic ethylene oxide market will be stalemate, and pay attention to the price trend of raw materials, the balance of supply and demand in the market, and the latest news guidance from manufacturers.


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