EO: Demand continues to be weak and quotations have fallen significantly

1. The price trend of ethylene in Asia in the past two years

Asian ethylene market sentiment is still weak, sellers continue to face the pressure of sluggish ethylene demand and sufficient supply, and the firm offer is still limited. Upstream market turmoil and lack of buying intention continued to weigh on market sentiment. Market recovery prospects are bleak, with no positives to support the battered ethylene market. There is a slightly bullish outlook for September on expectations of further reductions in operating rates for naphtha steam crackers in Asia, which will tighten supply.

Sentiment is expected to be bearish as most buyers remain on the sidelines due to weak spot demand and negative profit margins for downstream production. Naphtha steam crackers in Asia are operating at about 80% and this load is likely to remain low due to negative margins. Market recovery prospects are bleak, with no positives to support the battered ethylene market. Given the overall slowdown in global consumption, a downstream recovery is unlikely, hurting both intra-Asia trade and export opportunities to regions such as the US and Europe, and ethylene demand is likely to remain subdued in the near term. Supply in Southeast Asia remains limited due to a lack of ship supply.

2. EO main market price and profit trend

The overall profit performance of ethylene oxide has been acceptable recently, but with its own quotations plummeting and the price of ethylene continuing to be bearish, and the lack of cost support, the profit is only maintained near the cost line. In the traditional off-season downstream of ethylene oxide, the demand follow-up is not good, and the overall situation is deadlocked. . As of the publication date, the price of ethylene oxide in the East China market has dropped to 6,550 yuan/ton, and the profit loss of ethylene oxide production is roughly estimated to be 3 yuan/ton.

3. EO price trend in the past three years

The quotation of ethylene oxide has continued to decline recently, the raw material ethylene has weakened, and the support for ethylene oxide is insufficient. The market is obviously weak, and the industry is also waiting to see the market. The production enterprises all suffered losses to varying degrees. The downstream monomers closely followed the downward trend of ethylene oxide. The terminal infrastructure industry had a general digestion capacity, limited demand boost, and the trading atmosphere was flat. Only just need to follow up.

The loss of ethylene profit has increased, and the overall supply of EO is relatively abundant, but the trading in the market is limited, and the regional supply difference is still obvious, especially in the northeast region, the negative situation is becoming more and more obvious, which seriously suppressed the sentiment in the market. Monomers also decline with the cost side, and the market supply and demand are both weak. At present, it is still mainly to digest high-priced inventory. Under the background of the terminal off-season and the general economic environment, it is difficult to see positive results in the chain as a whole. Zhongyu expects the domestic ethylene oxide market to be weak. Sorting, follow-up pay attention to the price trend of raw materials, the balance of market supply and demand and the latest news and guidance of manufacturers.