EDC (ethylene dichloride): The global market seems to be turning. Can the domestic market resonate?

EDC (ethylene dichloride): The global market seems to be turning

Recently, the domestic dichloroethane market has continued to be weak and stalemate in the previous period. The supply of goods on the market is diverse, the overall supply remains loose, and the production and sales of production companies are relatively balanced. The market loosened and fell in a narrow range. As of the time of writing, the reference price of Aoku supply in Jiangyin area is 2390-2410 yuan / ton; the reference price of Xinpu factory is 2330-2370 yuan / ton (accepted). The market quotation in Guangzhou area refers to about 2550-2680 yuan/ton.

Looking at the overseas market, as the main downstream PVC market showed signs of bottoming out, the previous long-term bearish sentiment was boosted by the strengthening of the downstream market. US PVC spot export demand has shown signs of growth during the week, and global interest in the raw material is on the rise. The December transaction was completed at $610 per metric ton FAS Houston, but the subsequent December transaction was completed at $640 per metric ton FAS after earlier volumes offered at lower prices sold out. The market appeared poised to bounce back in January, prompting some sellers to take a back seat and wait for higher bids, some sources said. In terms of the Asian market, the CFR China PVC price benchmark jumped by US$75/ton this week, and the new quotation in January was US$90/ton higher than a month ago to US$815/ton CFR China. The raw material ethylene market performance also showed firmness, and the market offer rose by US$10/ton to US$890/ton compared with last week. Under the influence of positive superposition, the EDC market in the Far East this week changed from the previous sluggish atmosphere, and the offer rose to within a narrow range. 230 US dollars / ton, while the FOB price of the US Gulf has been pushed up sharply during the week, and the offer range is monitored at 160-255 yuan / ton. Because the downstream PVC market is expected to bottom out and rebound, the industry is in a wait-and-see mood. The adjustment range is widened.

However, in the short-term market, the supply of dichloroethane in the domestic market is relatively abundant, and the new production capacity of Sinpu Chemical’s VCM is expected to be released in early January. Therefore, it is planned to maintain the existing export sales before mid-January. In addition, there are still import cargoes expected to arrive in Hong Kong in early January. The overall loose supply prediction remains unchanged, and the demand performance at the end of the year is mostly flat, so Zhongyu believes that the short-term market operation will still maintain a weak and volatile trend. However, due to the expectation of a rebound in the PVC market in January, there is a positive improvement after the downstream plant of Xinpu Chemical is put into production, and some low-priced supplies in the early stage or reluctance to sell have increased. Driven by the demand for stocking before the Spring Festival, the market performance in January may improve, and we need to continue Pay attention to upstream and downstream market conditions and changes in supply and demand patterns.