DOP: Inflection point appears, the market is facing an upward trend

DOP: Inflection point appears, the market is facing an upward trend

Since December, the domestic DOP market has continued to drop. Although the market’s low prices have continued to increase, the bottoming sentiment has not yet emerged, whether it is the decline in the raw material octanol, weak demand, or The prudent mood of the industry to participate in the market, combined with multiple bad news, has led to an extremely sluggish market atmosphere. However, at this stage, the market turning point has appeared, and the upward trend is obvious. Zhongyu Information will make the following analysis on the recent market decline to rebound.

As far as the raw material octanol is concerned, the market price has rebounded. Taking Luxi Chemical as an example, the price of octanol in the early stage fell to 9100 yuan/ton, and the current price is 9600 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5%, and there is still room for a certain increase. As far as DOP is concerned, it has returned to the situation below the cost line again, so on the basis of the continuous strengthening of cost transmission, merchants will actively follow up.

As far as the demand side is concerned, the long-term downward trend has driven the bottoming sentiment. Based on the relatively low level, the shipment situation of DOP manufacturers has improved, and the superimposed buying sentiment is stimulated. It is expected that there will be a wave of replenishment in the market. There is a short-term expectation for the demand trend, the terminal demand has not improved substantially, and there is a certain cautious mood to catch up, so it is expected that the market trading atmosphere will gradually become flat.

As far as merchants are concerned, under the long-term sluggish shipment situation, there is basically a certain inventory phenomenon, so they will still focus on shipments, and the improvement of downstream purchases will relieve some pressure. Not big, basically running in the range of 5.5-60%.

Boosted by the improvement of raw materials, the DOP market ushered in a wave of rebound, but it is expected that the market will have a limited period of improvement. After the replenishment, there will be some empty rises. It is expected that the trading volume will gradually weaken, and be alert to the risk of a callback.