Cyclohexanone: the regional characteristics of the market will be more obvious next year

The Sino-US trade war, which lasted for more than a year, finally ushered in the first phase of the agreement on December 13, which is a good support for market sentiment. Peripheral oil prices reached a three-month highest closing for two consecutive days. However, due to the end of the year, and there was no direct cancellation of tariffs that favored end products, the domestic cyclohexanone market remained flat.

At present, the cyclohexanone market is mainly constrained by the pressure of raw material costs and the downturn in the downstream, and a cyclohexanone plant in Shenma will be put into operation at the end of the year, which will increase the supply in the South China market.

At the OPEC meeting, oil-producing countries have reached a consensus on expanding production cuts in 2020, and optimism has heated up after the first phase of the Sino-US trade agreement was reached, which has supported crude oil to a certain extent and thus affected the price of raw benzene. The Zhejiang Petrochemical project was put into operation smoothly, and short-term pure benzene was still supplied in small quantities. In addition, the inventory at East China Port was at a low level for three years. Hydrogenated benzene was supported by the high loss of crude benzene price. The price of raw benzene raw material was strong in December.

The demand for slicing terminals has not fundamentally changed, and the industry has made some purchases in the early stage. The rigid demand has declined. In addition, the lack of confidence in the market outlook has depressed some of the focus. At present, the start of the caprolactam industry is at a high level, and inventory may continue to accumulate.

The domestic cyclohexanone market performance will continue to differentiate in 2020 —— the Shandong market will be supported by Hongda's restart of caprolactam and adipic acid units. It is expected that the new demand will be 100,000 tons, which will absorb nearly one-third of Shandong's foreign sales; The East China market will face the supply replenishment of Chongqing Huafeng, and the increase in supply after the restart of Jiangsu Haili and the commissioning of the new Weiming plant in Jiangsu, while no new caprolactam capacity has been released; In addition to the Southwest market, in addition to the supply of southwestern sources, due to the consideration of Shenma's production, its Shenyuan supporting caprolactam is also planned to be launched, and the overall supply and demand pressure is not great, to meet self-sufficiency.

In addition, after the supporting cyclohexanone-caprolactam projects in Henan and Inner Mongolia are put into production next year, the pressure of caprolactam competition will increase, and the market demand for terminal chips needs to be paid attention to.